Armageddon in Africa: How Sudan Became the World's Worst Crisis

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Video originally published on September 12, 2024.

Sudan is experiencing a starvation crisis of historic proportions, one that threatens to become the deadliest famine seen in forty years. The Norwegian Refugee Council issued a stark warning on September 3rd that every opportunity to head off the worst of this situation has been missed, and now the people of Sudan face a crisis unmatched in decades. If projections prove accurate, the suffering in Sudan may soon eclipse that seen in Yemen in 2018, Tigray in 2022, or even North Korea in the early-1990s. In terms of body count alone, it could be the greatest hunger catastrophe experienced by any nation since the Ethiopian famine of the mid-1980s. At the highest end of projections, such as the pessimistic scenario published by a researcher at the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, the death toll could become so great as to make Ethiopia's nightmare seem almost trifling. As the Economist grimly noted, if much more help does not arrive very soon, it may prove the worst famine anywhere in the world since millions starved to death during China's Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

Key Takeaways

Sudan is experiencing a famine that could become the deadliest in forty years, with projections ranging from hundreds of thousands to potentially millions of deaths by 2027.

The Zamzam refugee camp reached level five on The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification's hunger scale in August 2024, marking only the third time in twenty years that anywhere on Earth has hit that milestone, with a child dying there every two hours.

The crisis stems from the war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army under General al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under warlord Hemedti, which has turned a fifth of Sudan's 48 million population into refugees and may have killed as many as 150,000 people.

Both warring parties have weaponized food distribution: the RSF has looted agricultural areas and besieged cities, while General al-Burhan's army blocks humanitarian aid to RSF-controlled territories where up to 90 percent of those facing famine are living.

Up to 25 million people may be going hungry according to the Norwegian Refugee Council, with three-quarters of a million already in famine conditions and another 8.5 million at emergency levels of hunger.

Sudan's agricultural sector has collapsed, with forty percent of farmers unable to till their land due to insecurity, and staple food prices now 350 percent above pre-war averages.

The Scale of the Unfolding Catastrophe

The magnitude of Sudan's starvation crisis defies the expectations of those living comfortable lives in 2024, seeming almost unhinged in its severity. The claim that tens of millions could starve in a single event appears to be something left behind in the 20th Century, yet definite signs indicate that a starvation crisis is already underway in Sudan. The United Nations announced in August that the Zamzam refugee camp had reached level five on The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification's hunger scale, representing the official declaration of famine. This marked only the third time in twenty years that anywhere on Earth has hit that grim milestone.

Conditions in the camp fully deserve this designation. Médecins Sans Frontières has reported that a child dies there every two hours due to starvation or diseases brought on by a lack of food. However, Zamzam is not unique in its suffering. The UN believes there are many more parts of Sudan experiencing equally dire conditions. The only difference is that researchers have access to reliable data from the camp, while the fighting elsewhere is so severe that the world must rely on anecdotes to understand the situation.

These anecdotes paint an awful picture of the crisis. Doctors from one of the last medical facilities in South Darfur claim between four and five children in their care are dying of malnutrition every single day. A July assessment from the NGO Mercy Corps found that perhaps a quarter of all children in Central Darfur are suffering acute malnutrition. The Norwegian Refugee Council thinks up to 25 million people may be going hungry, with the worst-affected reduced to eating insects and leaves. Overall, the IPC suggests three-quarters of a million people may already be in famine conditions, with another 8.5 million at emergency levels of hunger.

Unusually for a modern starvation crisis, it is not just the hinterland that is suffering. While Darfur serves as the famine's epicenter, it is also gripping once-wealthy urban areas. The capital of Khartoum, once one of Africa's most-vibrant cities, has been reduced to rubble. Those who still shelter in its ruins are unable to access food or clean drinking water. In its twin city of Omdurman, people are already reported to have starved to death.

The War That Destroyed a Nation

The full answer to how Sudan collapsed so utterly that millions starve while its capital resembles a dark, post-apocalyptic fantasy is complex, but the simplified version can be summed up in a single sentence: what happened to Sudan is war. The war in question is the ugly fight for power that erupted in April 2023, between the Sudanese army under General al-Burhan and a paramilitary outfit known as the Rapid Support Forces (or RSF) under a warlord known as Hemedti.

What began as a power struggle between two generals quickly morphed into a wild free-for-all which saw the RSF unleash a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur, the Sudanese army start bombing civilian areas, and third parties such as the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North seize huge chunks of territory for themselves. The carnage that resulted has been jaw-dropping, even for a world already used to images of destruction broadcast from Ukraine and Gaza.

Entire cities such as Khartoum have been obliterated. A fifth of the country's population of 48 million has been turned into refugees. No one knows how many have died, but the US envoy to Sudan estimates it could be as many as 150,000. This is the context needed to understand the looming famine: a context in which some 80 percent of hospitals in combat areas have been destroyed, and one in which diseases like cholera are starting to spread.

The Collapse of Sudan's Agricultural Sector

To really comprehend why things are so bad, it is necessary to look not at the conflict's impact on urban areas but on the long-struggling agricultural sector. The keywords there are "long-struggling." Even before the conflict ignited, Sudan's food situation was precarious. As the Conversation described things, issues included economic instability, high inflation and frequent climate shocks such as droughts and floods. Agricultural production was often below average. Many regions depended on food imports, which were easily disrupted by logistical challenges.

For such a precarious system, the conflict was the ultimate disruption. The NGO-produced report Beyond the Numbers, Hunger and Conflict in Sudan documents how the warring parties swept into agricultural areas. Attacks, looting and destruction have caused whole villages to flee, forcing farmers to abandon their land. This has fueled hunger not only for their families but also for the communities that relied on the food they produced.

Much of this has been carried out by the RSF, which Sudan expert Alex de Waal has described as "a looting machine." Regions hit have included former-breadbasket states like Al Jazira, which the UN has now declared at risk of famine. The Conversation estimated that forty percent of the nation's farmers had not been able to till their land this year due to the ongoing insecurity.

Those who have managed to farm have sometimes found that there is nowhere safe to sell their crops. Working markets have been repeatedly bombarded, while trucks carrying supplies on key logistics routes have been attacked and looted. As food has become scarcer, the price of what is available has correspondingly shot up. The prices of staple goods are now estimated to be 350 percent above their pre-war average.

To give some idea of just how sharp a rise this is, consider that CPI data shows food inflation in the US peaked at 13.5 percent in the summer of 2022, when inflation was at its peak in America. The inflation Sudan, already a much-poorer country, is now suffering is just orders of magnitude greater.

The Weaponization of Food Distribution

The current crisis is a result of deliberate choices made by the warring parties. While any conflict would have badly shaken Sudan's ability to produce food, the way this particular war is being waged all but guarantees millions will go hungry. Nowhere is that truer than in areas where both sides have weaponized food distribution.

In the RSF's case, that has involved cutting off supplies to areas their forces have placed under siege. Most dramatically, this includes the city of El-Fasher in North Darfur, and the nearby Zamzam refugee camp, the very place where the UN declared the start of a famine. Together, the city and camp house maybe two million people now at risk of starvation. Combined with their looting and destruction of agricultural land in breadbasket states like Sennar and Al Jazira, it is clear that the RSF bear heavy responsibility for the hunger crisis.

Yet, while Hemedti may be a ruthless warlord, there is a good argument to be made that, where food politics are concerned, he is a mere amateur. As Alex de Waal has written in the London Review of Books, up to 90 percent of those facing famine are living in RSF-controlled areas. And while some of that is down to the RSF's own looting, a lot of it is down to a deliberate military strategy the army is pursuing: a strategy of starvation.

General al-Burhan's Strategy of Starvation

Back in September of 2023, the UN announced that it would recognize the army's leader, General al-Burhan, as the official representative of Sudan. From some angles, the move made sense. Of the two commanders, the RSF's Hemedti is by far the more loathsome. As of now, his men are carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur that UN experts are warning may constitute a genocide. When his forces overran the city of El-Genina last year, they are estimated to have systematically slaughtered between 10,000 and 15,000 members of the Masalit tribe, a massacre worse than even the one that took place in Srebrenica during the Bosnian War.

Yet, while Hemedti may truly be one of the most evil men covered in this analysis, right up there with figures like ex-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, that does not mean that General al-Burhan is a saint. Far from it. Back in 2021, al-Burhan conspired with Hemedti to overthrow Sudan's civilian-led transitional government. Since the start of the war, his forces have repeatedly bombed densely-populated urban areas. And now, he may be deliberately engineering a famine to starve his opponents.

As the recognized head of state, al-Burhan has to give his permission for the UN to deliver aid to any part of Sudan, including the parts that are not under his control. As de Waal explains, the Sudanese Army has no forces within three hundred miles of the Sudan-Chad border, but as the acknowledged government of Sudan, it has the legal authority to close the frontier and obstruct humanitarian aid.

Because of this legal technicality, the UN cannot dispatch aid trucks overland from Chad into Darfur. And it really is only a technicality. The army does not control this border, a fact that can be seen every time RSF gun-runners flit back and forth across it with impunity. But because the UN has to defer to Sudan's recognized head of state, its lawyers will not let aid trucks cross.

To be fair, the blockade is not total. Since August 15th, al-Burhan has allowed some aid trucks in from Chad. However, they may only use a single crossing and, as the Economist reports, the army continues to drag its feet with the necessary paperwork. De Waal believes that this is all part of a strategy to create the conditions for unrest or even outright rebellion in RSF-held areas. For an army struggling to make progress on the battlefield, starvation is a cheap and effective weapon, and the army intends to use it to the full. The trouble is, whether it works or not, al-Burhan's strategy will lead to the deaths of huge numbers of civilians.

Projecting the Death Toll

As to exactly how many may die in the coming months, it is difficult to say, and predictions vary. Most researchers also do not like to give out exact figures, since data from inside the warzone is so sparse and modeling what might happen is therefore extremely hard. Those working at the IPC, for example, will only refer to "hundreds of thousands" who are likely to die.

Others, though, are more willing to offer concrete figures. One senior UN official briefed in February that some 222,000 children might perish this year. In May, the Clingendael Institute put together a model that suggested the overall death toll might be as high as 2.5 million. This model was somewhat controversial, since it involved calculating the availability of food versus the basic nutritional needs of the population, and using the shortfall to reach its figures. De Waal has called this method of calculation a "last-resort practice," and noted that a similar model used in the Darfur famine of 1984 overestimated the eventual death toll by a factor of six or more.

Still, Clingendael's analysts believe they have calibrated well for factors like the pre-existing food shortages in neighboring countries. One of their number, Timmo Gaasbeek, has even gamed out potential scenarios all the way until 2027. The Economist reports that his optimistic scenario foresees about six million Sudanese dead by then. The pessimistic scenario foresees a final famine-related death toll of over ten million. The last time any single famine killed that many people was during Chairman Mao's Great Leap Forward.

To be clear, this is the pessimistic scenario of an already-pessimistic model. Few other analysts are willing to predict an outcome quite so catastrophic. But, even if the eventual death toll falls far short of ten million, the one thing most experts agree on is that the coming famine in Sudan is going to be bad. Like, once-in-a-generation bad. Sadly, it seems there is little the world can do to avert it.

No End in Sight

Right now, neither the army nor the RSF are willing to make peace. Sixteen ceasefires have already been agreed upon and then ignored since the conflict erupted. At the most recent talks in Switzerland, General al-Burhan did not even bother sending a representative. Meanwhile, the RSF continues to try and expand its territory into agricultural states like Sennar and White Nile, its troops burning and looting as they go. As they do so, they destroy any hopes that the next harvest might bring some relief to Sudan's starving people.

Nor can any hope be found on the international stage. Although both the army and RSF are kept afloat by outside backers—Egypt and Iran for the army, UAE for the RSF—none of their sponsors has shown any inclination to ask them to ease off. In short, the tragedy about to engulf Sudan may be one that is unavoidable. A tragedy born of two men desperately struggling for power, seemingly indifferent to the mass-suffering that struggle has brought.

It is a grim conclusion. But then, there is nothing remotely upbeat or hopeful about what is now happening in these places: places like Darfur, Khartoum, or Kordofan. Only the specter of yet another of the four horsemen joining what is already an apocalyptic fight. Sudan today may be the world's great, forgotten crisis, overshadowed by both Ukraine and Gaza. Sadly, though, it could soon become infamous as the site of the greatest catastrophe seen in decades.

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FAQ

How severe is the famine in Sudan?

Sudan is experiencing a starvation crisis of historic proportions that could become the deadliest famine seen in forty years. The Zamzam refugee camp reached level five on The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification's hunger scale in August 2024, with a child dying there every two hours. The Norwegian Refugee Council estimates up to 25 million people may be going hungry, with three-quarters of a million already in famine conditions and another 8.5 million at emergency levels of hunger.

What caused the famine in Sudan?

The famine is primarily caused by the war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army under General al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under warlord Hemedti. The conflict has destroyed Sudan's already-precarious agricultural sector, with forty percent of farmers unable to till their land, markets bombarded, supply routes attacked, and both sides weaponizing food distribution. Even before the war, Sudan faced economic instability, high inflation, climate shocks, and below-average agricultural production.

How many people have died or been displaced by the conflict?

The US envoy to Sudan estimates that as many as 150,000 people may have died in the conflict so far. A fifth of Sudan's population of 48 million has been turned into refugees. Some 80 percent of hospitals in combat areas have been destroyed, and entire cities like Khartoum have been reduced to rubble.

How are the warring parties weaponizing food?

The RSF has been described as a looting machine, cutting off supplies to besieged areas like El-Fasher and Zamzam camp, and destroying agricultural land in breadbasket states like Al Jazira and Sennar. General al-Burhan's army uses its UN-recognized authority to block humanitarian aid from crossing the Chad border into RSF-controlled Darfur, where up to 90 percent of those facing famine live. Since August 15th, al-Burhan has allowed limited aid through a single crossing but continues to delay necessary paperwork as part of a deliberate starvation strategy.

What are the death toll projections for the famine?

Projections vary widely. The IPC refers to hundreds of thousands likely to die. One senior UN official predicted 222,000 children might perish in 2024. The Clingendael Institute's model suggests 2.5 million deaths as a possibility, with researcher Timmo Gaasbeek's scenarios ranging from six million deaths by 2027 in the optimistic case to over ten million in the pessimistic scenario. Most experts agree the famine will be once-in-a-generation bad, though the pessimistic ten million figure is controversial and not widely endorsed.

What is happening in Darfur specifically?

Darfur is the epicenter of the famine. The RSF is carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing there that UN experts warn may constitute genocide. When RSF forces overran El-Genina, they systematically slaughtered between 10,000 and 15,000 members of the Masalit tribe. The city of El-Fasher and nearby Zamzam refugee camp, housing maybe two million people, are under siege and at risk of starvation. Multiple regions in Darfur have been declared at risk of famine, with a quarter of children in Central Darfur suffering acute malnutrition.

How bad is food inflation in Sudan?

The prices of staple goods in Sudan are now estimated to be 350 percent above their pre-war average. To put this in perspective, food inflation in the US peaked at 13.5 percent in summer 2022 during America's inflation crisis. The inflation Sudan is suffering is orders of magnitude greater than what the US experienced.

Is there any hope for peace or relief?

The outlook is grim. Neither the army nor the RSF are willing to make peace, with sixteen ceasefires already agreed upon and then ignored since the conflict erupted. At the most recent talks in Switzerland, General al-Burhan did not even send a representative. The RSF continues to expand into agricultural states, burning and looting. International backers (Egypt and Iran for the army, UAE for the RSF) have shown no inclination to pressure their sides to ease off.

Sources

About the Author

Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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