The Israel-Iran War Has Begun: Operation Rising Lion and the Path to Regional Conflict

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Video originally published on June 13, 2025.

Israel and Iran are at war. In the pre-dawn hours of June thirteenth, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion—a massive sequence of airstrikes, sabotage operations, and targeted assassinations across Iran. The strikes targeted the country's nuclear facilities, military leadership, and ballistic missile capabilities. Iran has made clear its intent to retaliate in kind, the United States stands ready to respond with overwhelming force, and the time for negotiation has conclusively passed. This is the showdown that the Middle East has been building toward for decades, and it has finally arrived: Israel and Iran, zero seconds to midnight.

Key Takeaways

Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13, conducting massive airstrikes, sabotage operations, and targeted assassinations across Iran targeting nuclear facilities, military leadership, and ballistic missile capabilities.

The Natanz uranium enrichment facility was severely damaged in the strikes, along with approximately 300 other targets including military bases, command posts, and Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters.

Israel eliminated a large portion of Iran's top military leadership, including Hossein Salami (IRGC leader), Mohammed Bagheri (Chief of Staff), Gholam Ali Rashid (Commander of Central Headquarters), and Ali Shamkhani (chief nuclear negotiator).

Iran's limited initial response is attributed to the successful destruction of its command-and-control infrastructure, leaving surviving leaders struggling to coordinate a response despite possessing around 2,000 ballistic missiles and tens of thousands of drones.

Israel claims Iran was days away from nuclear weapons capability with enough uranium to produce 15 nuclear bombs, justifying the preemptive strike despite ongoing US-Iran diplomatic negotiations scheduled for that weekend in Oman.

The United States finds itself in a difficult position, potentially being drawn into wider conflict as Iran is expected to launch massive retaliation that Israel will request American assistance to counter.

Operation Rising Lion: The First Waves

The explosions began at approximately three o'clock in the morning local time in Tehran on June thirteenth. In Jerusalem, the attack was dubbed Operation Rising Lion. Among the most important targets for Israel was a key uranium enrichment facility called Natanz, where Iran has worked to prepare enough uranium, at the proper enrichment levels, that it could create weapons-grade material on short notice.

Images circulating on social media in the immediate aftermath of Israel's first wave of strikes showed Natanz in flames, with smoke billowing high into the sky. According to the chief of Iran's atomic agency, Natanz is now severely damaged. But Natanz was far from Israel's only target. According to sources from within Israel's defense apparatus, the Israel Defense Forces hit a number of sites relating to Iran's nuclear program, as well as its missile-launch capabilities and its command-and-control infrastructure.

A number of hits were reported across the capital city of Tehran, including at six separate military bases, two secure command posts, and residential units where important Iranian figures lived. The headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard Corps was reported to be in flames by the time the first strike ended, with some accounts indicating that a crisis meeting between senior leaders was underway when the facility was hit.

Iran declared a nationwide state of emergency in response, although by the time it went into effect, a second wave of strikes was already on its way. After a few hours, Israeli sources reported that the IDF had logged around three hundred successful hits, with that number only expected to rise as the situation evolves.

Mossad Operations: Sabotage and Assassination

According to a wide range of sources speaking anonymously to the global press, Israel's first wave of attacks went far beyond just airstrikes. Israeli intelligence elements linked to the Mossad organization moved into action all across the country, especially in urban areas, carrying out a range of acts of sabotage and targeted assassination.

The specifics of those operations are not yet known as of the time of writing, but already it's clear that the cultivation of assets and the preparation on the ground for an attack of this scale must have taken years. In addition to high-level officials, Mossad targeted Iran's air defense systems, as well as its ballistic missiles and launch equipment.

Israeli intelligence sources have indicated that the nation also worked to create a false sense of security for Iran immediately prior to the attack, including a vacation for Benjamin Netanyahu and an upcoming wedding for his son. These deception operations appear to have been designed to lower Iranian vigilance in the critical hours before the strikes commenced.

Decapitation Strike: Iran's Military Leadership Eliminated

Just as important as the locations that Israel hit are the individuals that Israel has eliminated. Among those who have been confirmed dead are Hossein Salami, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Mohammed Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the entire Iranian military. Also among the dead are Gholam Ali Rashid, Commander of the Central Headquarters of the Iranian General Staff, and Ali Shamkhani, the senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, who was entrusted to be Iran's chief negotiator in working toward a new nuclear deal with the United States.

In totality, Israel is believed to have eliminated a large portion of Iran's top military leadership, if not most or even all of the nation's most important military decision-makers. The scope of this decapitation strike represents an unprecedented blow to Iran's military command structure.

Just as important is the list of people who've survived thus far: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Minister of Defense Aziz Nasirzadeh. None of them are believed to have been targeted by this wave of Israeli strikes, but that could change in the future.

Iran's Limited Initial Response

As of the time of writing, Iran has only engaged in a limited retaliation, with the IDF reporting that Iran has launched a number of kamikaze drones toward Israel. While the reason for the lack of a larger immediate response hasn't been confirmed outright, it's hardly a secret. Israel's attack appears to have been quite clearly intended to destroy Iran's command-and-control infrastructure, and Israel now appears to have succeeded.

Iran's Supreme Leader has already appointed a few replacement figures, including a new Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, but that's only one small part of what Iran will need to do in the coming days. With the magnitude and scope of what Israel has achieved, it's likely that Iran's surviving military leaders will need time before they can even figure out who's supposed to be in charge now.

Iranian MiG-29 fighter jets did scramble to respond, but it's unclear whether or not any air-to-air engagements actually took place. If they did, then this may well be the day that the American-made F-35 fighter, specifically the customized version that Israel flies, gets its first test in head-to-head aerial combat. Reports to that effect have not yet emerged as of now.

The Nuclear Context: Weeks from Weapons Capability

The most important context for understanding these strikes relates to the ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States. Over the last few months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come out as a staunch opponent of talks, arguing that Iran cannot be trusted to engage in a nuclear deal of any sort, and it's a foolhardy endeavor to even try and come to terms.

Those concerns have been validated by recent reports that found that Iran is rapidly increasing its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium. That affords Iran a dangerous breakout capability, and experts now estimate that within a span of weeks, Iran could enrich enough of its existing stocks to weapons grade that it could build ten nuclear warheads. It would take longer for Iran to build and assemble a delivery mechanism for them, but that would likely be a matter of just months.

According to Israel, however, even that is an undercount. Speaking to the global press as strikes were already underway, Israeli officials alleged that Iran had enough uranium to produce fifteen nuclear bombs. Not only that, but they allege that bombs were already being assembled, and that Iran was just days away from a final nuclear breakthrough. These claims have not been validated independently, but as of now, they're the explanation that Israeli sources have provided for the strike.

Diplomatic Collapse: The End of Nuclear Negotiations

Since the start of the nuclear negotiations, the United States under Donald Trump has worked to hold Israel in check, making sure that Israel didn't carry out a strike several months ago, and demanding a chance to establish a diplomatic settlement. As recently as two weeks ago, Washington was urging Jerusalem to be patient and avoid launching strikes, citing the fact that Iran was, at that time, still participating actively in the negotiating process.

But now, with Trump seeming to grow more skeptical about Iran's willingness to work with the United States, it's unclear that he tried to prevent Netanyahu from taking action. Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone as recently as Monday, but few details about the content of that call have been disclosed to the public. Iran has insisted that it retain the ability to enrich uranium on its own territory, a clear non-starter for Israel, and efforts to work out a compromise don't appear to have had any success.

Prior to Israel's wave of attacks, the United States and Iran were scheduled to meet in the nation of Oman this Sunday, in a sixth-round, last-ditch attempt to establish a nuclear settlement. According to US officials, America still intends to be present for those talks as scheduled, although it's not clear that Iran will have any desire to come to the table. Not only has the nation's lead negotiator been killed, but it's not even clear that Iran still has a nuclear program to negotiate over. Nor is it clear that Iran has any interest in pursuing an offramp after what's just happened all across the country.

Israel's Strategic Commitment and Preparations

Right now, it's impossible to say for sure how this conflict will end, but we can say with some confidence that it won't be ending quickly. According to Benjamin Netanyahu himself, Operation Rising Lion is expected to persist for several days at least. Other Israeli sources suggest that Jerusalem is ready to keep things going for weeks or even longer if need be.

Israel's leadership was shifted to secure locations within hours of the start of the strikes, and the nation has closed its airspace and placed all of its hospitals on notice for a large-scale emergency. Israeli news channels are reporting that the nation's leaders expect Iran to unleash a massive coordinated drone and missile assault, possibly lasting for days or even weeks.

For Israel's part, the Netanyahu government appears entirely committed to the cause. This was not a mere warning shot by Israel; Jerusalem did have the option to launch a more limited attack, maybe destroy some air-defense systems or drop inert, non-exploding munitions at the locations of Iran's senior leadership, in order to coerce Iran into accepting more favorable terms at the meeting in Oman this weekend. Instead, Israel went for the throat, in a series of strikes that aren't even somewhat debatable in their intent, and that Israel fully understands will demand retribution.

Iran's Retaliatory Capabilities

Iran is believed to possess around two thousand heavy-yield ballistic missiles, as well as many tens of thousands of unmanned kamikaze drones, and at least a few thousand long-range cruise missiles. It is critically important to understand here that just hitting Iran really hard doesn't necessarily interrupt Iran's ability to launch a massive counterattack, and Iran has spent years planning and distributing its aerial projectiles and launch systems to ensure that it could retaliate even if its command-and-control infrastructure was decapitated.

And it is equally vital to understand that although Israeli air defenses are robust, no air defense system is infallible anywhere in the world. Air defenses can only shoot down as many incoming projectiles as they have interceptors, and with the sheer volumes that Iran could launch its weapons, it's a distinct possibility that Israeli or even American air defenses could be overwhelmed, leading to mass casualties on the ground.

The distributed nature of Iran's missile and drone arsenal means that even with significant damage to command infrastructure, Iran retains the physical capability to launch devastating attacks. The question is whether the surviving Iranian leadership can coordinate such an assault effectively in the aftermath of the decapitation strikes.

America's Uncertain Role

As for the role of the United States, Israel's most important international backer, that remains to be seen. On the one hand, there's a decent argument to be made that Israel's actions may have been intended as a slap in the face to America's Trump administration, with whom Netanyahu is known to be on less-than-ideal terms. For Israel to carry out such a devastating series of strikes when by all accounts the United States planned to meet with Iranian officials this weekend could be read as an outright dismissal of America's priorities and strategic leadership.

On the other hand, if Washington tacitly signed off on the attack or privately endorsed Israel's plans, then it's equally fair to say that the nation might benefit from looking as if it's been caught off-guard. The ambiguity serves both nations' interests in different ways.

But the most troubling possibility is that Israel may intend to lure the United States into a larger conflict, even against its own will, by launching such a large assault that Iran is almost guaranteed to retaliate at large scale. Quoting national security reporter John Hudson, "A US defense official says this attack will provoke a significant Iranian response that the Israelis will then ask the United States to help counter despite the fact that it just blew up the delicate US diplomatic talks."

That request would be a hard one for Washington to refuse, and even more so if American assets are targeted by Iran alongside the nation of Israel. American military might would go a very long way in supporting Israel's objectives, although Israel might be most interested in one specific military asset: the GBU-57, better known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a five-thousand-pound bunker buster that's designed to burrow into the ground and destroy Iran's most hardened nuclear facilities, where Israel's best munitions still can't touch. American warplanes are stationed all around the Middle East in such great numbers that they could lay waste to Tehran if they get the go-ahead.

The Days Ahead

The situation as of nine o'clock in the morning local time in Tehran on Friday, June thirteenth, represents only the opening chapter of what is likely to be a protracted conflict. The strikes have been produced and reported as quickly as possible given the circumstances, but the situation will have evolved further by the time this information reaches most audiences.

Israel has demonstrated both its intelligence penetration of Iran and its willingness to act decisively against what it perceives as an existential nuclear threat. Iran, despite the devastation to its command structure, retains significant retaliatory capabilities that it has prepared over years specifically for this scenario. The United States finds itself in a position where it may be drawn into a wider regional conflict regardless of its diplomatic preferences.

The Middle East stands at a critical juncture. The conflict that has been building for decades between Israel and Iran has now erupted into open warfare. With nuclear facilities damaged, military leadership eliminated, and thousands of missiles potentially ready for launch, the coming days and weeks will determine whether this conflict can be contained or whether it will expand into a broader regional war with global implications. As this crisis evolves, the trouble has only just begun.

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FAQ

What is Operation Rising Lion?

Operation Rising Lion is Israel's codename for a massive military operation launched on June 13 at approximately 3:00 AM local time in Tehran. It consists of coordinated airstrikes, Mossad sabotage operations, and targeted assassinations across Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military leadership, and ballistic missile capabilities. The operation logged around 300 successful hits in its first wave.

Which Iranian facilities were targeted in the strikes?

Key targets included the Natanz uranium enrichment facility (now severely damaged), six military bases in Tehran, two secure command posts, Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, residential units of important Iranian figures, air defense systems, and ballistic missile launch equipment. Multiple sites related to Iran's nuclear program and command-and-control infrastructure were hit.

Which Iranian military leaders were killed in the operation?

Confirmed deaths include Hossein Salami (leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Mohammed Bagheri (Chief of Staff of the Iranian military), Gholam Ali Rashid (Commander of the Central Headquarters of the Iranian General Staff), and Ali Shamkhani (senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader and chief nuclear negotiator).

Which Iranian leaders survived the strikes?

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Minister of Defense Aziz Nasirzadeh are believed to have survived and were not targeted in this wave of strikes, though that could change in future operations.

Why hasn't Iran launched a major retaliation yet?

Iran's limited initial response (only kamikaze drones) is attributed to Israel's successful destruction of Iran's command-and-control infrastructure. The decapitation of military leadership has left surviving leaders needing time to determine who is in charge and coordinate an effective response, despite Iran possessing significant retaliatory capabilities.

How close was Iran to developing nuclear weapons?

Experts estimated Iran could enrich enough existing uranium stocks to weapons grade within weeks to build ten nuclear warheads, with delivery mechanisms taking months. Israeli officials claim Iran had enough uranium for fifteen nuclear bombs and was just days away from a final nuclear breakthrough, though these claims have not been independently validated.

What role did Mossad play in the operation?

Mossad conducted extensive sabotage and targeted assassination operations across Iran, particularly in urban areas. The operations required years of asset cultivation and preparation. Mossad also targeted air defense systems and ballistic missile launch equipment, and created deception operations including Netanyahu's vacation and his son's upcoming wedding to lower Iranian vigilance before the strikes.

What retaliatory capabilities does Iran still possess?

Iran is believed to possess around 2,000 heavy-yield ballistic missiles, tens of thousands of unmanned kamikaze drones, and at least a few thousand long-range cruise missiles. These weapons and launch systems have been distributed over years to ensure Iran could retaliate even if its command-and-control infrastructure was decapitated.

Sources

About the Author

Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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