Is This the End of the Wagner Group? Russia's Endgame in the Central African Republic

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Video originally published on August 14, 2025.

Stare into a crystal ball, searching for the darkest parts of the modern world, and you just might find the Wagner Group staring back at you. Ever since Russia's most fearsome mercenaries first emerged from the shadows in 2014, they've become a brutal warning, and a bitter lesson, on where our entire global order may be headed. In the most dangerous corners of the most dangerous countries, where any atrocity can be excused in the name of profit, the Wagner Group are at their very strongest, trading an ounce of gold here, or a lump of cobalt there, for one hundred times its weight in human blood. Around the world, the Wagner Group has been under siege since 2023, not just from international journalists or human rights organizations, but from the very same Russian government that first whispered it into existence. And ever since that time, the Wagner Group has retreated closer and closer to the land that's become its very own fortress: the Central African Republic, at the heart of the Congo Basin. But now, Russia's plan to eradicate and replace the Wagner Group has moved into its endgame, and Wagner's final stronghold is under attack.

Key Takeaways

Russia is pressuring the Central African Republic to replace the Wagner Group with the Africa Corps, a paramilitary organization under direct control of Russia's Ministry of Defense.

The Wagner Group has been operating in the CAR since 2018 and has grown to become its largest deployment area outside Ukraine, with an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 fighters.

Wagner has deep entrenchment in the CAR, controlling natural resource extraction (gold, diamonds, timber, critical minerals) and providing essential security services to President Touadera's regime.

President Touadera is resisting the transition because his regime depends on Wagner for survival, and the Africa Corps appears to be an inadequate replacement with supply issues, poor training, and less combat engagement.

Wagner fighters in the CAR have established permanent communities, businesses, and infrastructure, making them uniquely resistant to Moscow's dismantling efforts compared to other African deployments.

The CAR cannot afford to pay the Africa Corps in cash as Russia demands, whereas Wagner accepted payment in raw minerals, creating a financial impasse.

Moscow's Ultimatum: The Beginning of the End

Around the world, the news barely made headlines, but for analysts and organizations that have been watching the Wagner Group operate for years, it was a signal of the beginning of the end. On August the sixth, the Associated Press reported on conversations with military and elected leaders in the Central African Republic, a nation of about 5.3 million people that's long been one of the most unstable, impoverished, and underdeveloped places in the world. According to those sources from the CAR, speaking anonymously, Russian officials have reached out to the CAR's leadership and made it clear that it's time for the Wagner Group to be replaced.

According to Moscow, the leadership in Bangui should prepare for the Wagner Group to be pulled out of the CAR, in favor of more easily controlled paramilitaries from a growing Russian unit called the Africa Corps. The CAR should be ready to pay in cash, to solicit their services—and, as is the unspoken reality behind all requests from Moscow to its less powerful partners, Bangui should probably assume that this is less of an offer, than a politely phrased set of instructions. According to the Central African officials speaking to the AP, at least one of Russia's deputy defense ministers—Yunus-Bek Yevkurov—has been pressuring the CAR to shift toward the Africa Corps for months—and for the CAR and Moscow alike, that would be a significant change.

Wagner's Deep Roots in the Central African Republic

Context really matters here, because as simple as that demand might sound, when it's coming from stone-faced diplomats representing an impassive Moscow, the relationship between the Central African Republic and the Wagner Group is far from a simple thing to break apart. Wagner has been operating in the CAR since long before it was a well-known actor on the geopolitical stage, first deploying 170 mercenaries to the country in 2018. Since then, the Central African Republic has grown into Wagner's largest deployment area, by far, besides Ukraine.

Current estimates on the number of Wagner fighters in the CAR range from 1,500, on the low end, to two thousand or possibly even more. They're well-trained, well-equipped, and more than happy to support the man who's led the CAR since 2016, sixty-eight-year-old autocrat Faustin-Archange Touadera. In exchange for the Wagner Group's continued protection and goodwill, Touadera has given the mercenaries basically open access to the CAR's rich reserves of natural resources: gold, diamonds, timber, and all sorts of critical minerals. Through the sale of those resources, as well as a range of other moneymaking ventures, the Wagner Group has been able to make itself very comfortable in the Central African Republic, with the organization's masters in Moscow always getting a cut of the action.

For all practical purposes, the Wagner Group can act with impunity in the CAR, fully aware that the nation depends on their services to stay afloat, and that no outside influences have any real hope of pushing them out. The exception, of course, is the nation of Russia—and finally, in the summer of 2025, Moscow has come to remind President Touadera who's really in charge.

The Rise of the Africa Corps: Russia's Post-Prigozhin Solution

After the Wagner Group's now-former leaders launched, and then aborted, their 2023 mutiny, and were promptly thrown out of a window at thirty thousand feet, Moscow has been in the process of dismantling the Wagner Group where it's deployed abroad. Although the CAR is where Wagner is most firmly entrenched, the group's fighters were dispatched on similar missions across Africa and elsewhere before the mutiny, overseeing the extraction of resources and the protection of Russia-friendly regimes. After the mutiny, however, it became clear to Russia's leaders that Wagner's leash had been getting a bit too long, and one by one, Wagner detachments abroad have been disassembled and replaced with the Africa Corps.

Founded in 2023, the Africa Corps is a paramilitary organization like Wagner, but it's under the direct control of Russia's Ministry of Defense, meaning that it's far less likely to go rogue in the way that Wagner did. Many Wagner fighters have agreed to become part of the Africa Corps, sometimes in the same postings and with the same small to medium-size units, and now, the Africa Corps is stationed in at least four or five African nations, although they may be active elsewhere. In the world that exists after Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, it's the Africa Corps—not Wagner—that represents Russia's preferred way of doing business.

Why Wagner Fighters Are Resisting the Transition

After watching Moscow shift its paramilitary operations away from the Wagner Group across Africa, the idea that Russia would reach the Central African Republic had become an eventuality. But in a process that's mostly seen the Wagner Group peacefully accept the changing times, there's reason to believe that it's the Central African Republic where the mercenaries would take a stand for their own survival. Although many former Wagner fighters have gone over to the Africa Corps after their units were dismantled, that's far from a fate that every Wagnerite can get behind.

Many are opposed to joining the Africa Corps, for any number of reasons: issues with pay, equipment, or the quality of newer recruits, resentment over the increased control or accountability to Moscow, a simmering bitterness over what went down in 2023, or the loss of any number of special privileges that come with being a Wagner fighter. For troops that don't want to join the Africa Corps, or go over to other Russian paramilitary units, Chechen forces, or the formal Russian military, their chances of finding a civilian job that pays half as well as Wagner are fairly low. And as other Wagner deployments have been shut down, the fighters in the Central African Republic seem to have only become more intent on preserving their status—partly because they seem to have become a destination for Wagner mercenaries from other places, who aren't yet ready to give up the fight.

In fairness to these Wagner operatives, their perceptions of a Central African branch that could operate more freely and autonomously, had a real basis in prior Russian policy. Wagner in the CAR wasn't subject to many of the same early reforms as the rest of the Wagner Group, after the 2023 mutiny. They weren't forced into new contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, like they were everywhere else. As such, they kept lots of their financial and operational autonomy, even their independence, when other Wagner detachments lost it. They've been allowed to send their regular payments to Moscow in the form of raw minerals and harvested materials, rather than cash, and until early 2025, that arrangement seemed to buy them Moscow's continued tolerance.

The Symbiotic Relationship Between Wagner and Touadera

Wagner's relationship with the Central African Republic isn't the same as its relationship with other host nations. After more than half a decade of Wagner support, President Touadera and his inner circle are all but dependent on the Russian mercenaries to maintain their grip on power. Wagner hunts down rebel factions, in the anarchy of the rural provinces. It creates and disseminates convincing propaganda, and intimidates, attacks, or even executes civilians who start causing trouble. It offers personal protection to Touadera himself, trains his most elite units, and keeps his favored political allies safe from harm. It enabled Touadera's bid for a third term later this year, despite mass unrest across the country, from people who know how vulnerable Touadera would be if the Wagner Group disappeared.

Above all else, the Wagner Group represents roughly two thousand well-armed, well-trained, well-coordinated troops who are loyal to the highest bidder, in a nation where Touadera is the only bidder that Wagner would even bother to entertain. Wagner protects Touadera from a potential popular uprising, from a potential separatist movement, from a potential military or palace coup, and because Wagner is a private entity that doesn't necessarily follow Russia's orders, they even protect Touadera from a change of heart in the Kremlin. For him, and for an extremely paranoid, horrifically corrupt inner circle that's complicit in all manner of repression and atrocities, the arrival of the Africa Corps means the removal of Wagner's autonomy. For the Wagner Group, Touadera is a profitable business partner, and the key to an entire nation where the mercenaries can do as they please. By contrast, Touadera knows that when it really matters, the Africa Corps will prove to be nothing more than Putin's enforcers.

The Africa Corps Problem: An Inadequate Replacement

Reports from other nations that have witnessed the switch from Wagner to the Africa Corps would seem to suggest that the Africa Corps are just worse. When they've taken over Wagner postings elsewhere, they've shown themselves to be disinterested in engaging with local leaders, harnessing pre-existing connections, or otherwise harnessing the relationships that Wagner already spent years cultivating. They've experienced considerable supply chain issues, meaning that weapons, equipment, and reinforcements are often slow to come, while many of their newer recruits are poorly trained, and many of their more veteran fighters have found their paychecks to be small, slow to arrive, or even suspended.

When it comes to their duties on the ground, the Africa Corps try to work in more of a training and support role, perhaps managing convoys and logistics in hard-hit areas, but doing very little of the front-line combat that Wagner was so happy to engage in. For the Central African Republic, where Wagner played an active and constant role in securing the Touadera regime, the switch to the Africa Corps isn't just a threat to business; it's a threat to stability. And worst of all, Moscow is demanding that the CAR pay for the Africa Corps' presence in cash, whereas Wagner was more than happy to accept raw minerals, and take care of the rest. The Central African Republic doesn't have cash; it has mines, and if it can't pay with what comes out of the mines, then it might not be able to pay at all.

Wagner's Permanent Footprint: Communities, Businesses, and Infrastructure

After nearly a decade of Wagner deployment, many of the group's fighters are now deeply entrenched within the Central African Republic, and haven't been home to Russia in years. Some don't even have homes to return to. Many of them have established new, predominantly Russian communities; they've overseen the creation and expansion of Russian language and cultural centers; and a portion have started families. Some of them work in customs offices, while others have started their own local vodka and beer brands. They get statues, and monuments, and last year, a military flyover to honor the one-year anniversary of Yevgeny Prigozhin's death.

They've long since graduated from simple stickups at gold and diamond mines; they own the companies that facilitate mining, as well as the shell corporations that oversee and coordinate smuggling, and convert their resource harvest into profits. They've spent years building pro-government militias in their own image, known as Black Russians, and they now work alongside those militias every day. And they're hard at work on a base that's supposed to be for Russia's future use, intended to host ten thousand Russian troops by 2030. The Wagner Group is deeply entrenched in the CAR, and it shouldn't be a surprise that after so many years as Wagner's largest Africa deployment, they've gotten comfortable.

Touadera's Resistance: Fighting for Wagner's Survival

It's because of this unique relationship, between Wagner, the Touadera administration, and the lands and people of the Central African Republic, that the Russian government has run into so much trouble, trying to squeeze them out. These efforts from Moscow have been ongoing since the early months of 2025, at the very latest, and the fact that this has turned into a debate between the Kremlin and Touadera at all, shows that this process is going very differently in the CAR than it's gone in other African nations. When the Africa Corps replaced Wagner in Mali, for instance, it wasn't an easy process, but Russia said it would be done, and it was done. Touadera, however, is fighting on the Wagner Group's behalf. His administration is drawing out the process, demanding specific proposals, making it clear to Russia that they just can't pay cash in the way that the Kremlin wants, and, by all outward indicators, trying to figure out a way for Wagner to stay.

In the world of private mercenary groups and violent resource extraction, everything has a price, and certainly, both Touadera and the Wagner Group understand that for the right price, Wagner would be made to disappear. But Russia hasn't met that price, at least not yet, and for the Touadera government, it's of the utmost importance that Wagner doesn't leave until that changes. Unlike Mali, a nation that's started to re-engage with the United States as its Russia collaboration has become strained, the CAR doesn't really have the option to call for American, French, or other Western military support. Its relationship with those nations is well past the point of no return.

An Existential Threat to the Regime

The Touadera government knows that they can't sustain a cash-focused relationship with an outside paramilitary force, and it knows that without some kind of outside support, the nation will descend into anarchy. But right now, Russia isn't just refusing to budge on its preferred means of payment. It's offering a replacement to the Wagner Group that seems to be no replacement at all. The Africa Corps is less equipped than Wagner, less familiar with the local environment or the map of threats to the regime, less willing to go to the lengths that Wagner was so comfortable with, and less interested in making sure that Touadera and his people survive to see tomorrow.

For Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, or any of Russia's other African partners, the switch from Wagner to the Africa Corps was a headache at worst. For the Touadera regime, it's an existential threat, because although the Central African Republic has become a Russian client state…that's really not quite true. It's become a Wagner client state, and unless Russia can truly replace the services Wagner provides, the CAR quite literally cannot afford to make the switch. Because of the sheer vulnerability of the Touadera regime, the Wagner Group has all the internal support it needs, to try and maintain its place despite pressure from the Kremlin. The internal incentives of the group, and its individual fighters, would suggest that they'd be very interested in remaining in the CAR, and more specifically, remaining members of the Wagner Group. Their control over highly valuable resources is not something they're going to give up easily, and in fact, this back-and-forth with the Kremlin has already persevered long enough that it's clear: Wagner isn't getting out, unless it's forced out.

Putin's Limited Options: The Dilemma of Forcing Wagner Out

So, in turn, that begs the most important question of all. What is Vladimir Putin going to do about it? Unfortunately for him, there's really not much that Putin can do, that he hasn't done already. The Kremlin has tried issuing an ultimatum to Touadera, and that hasn't worked. It's tried pressuring, and that hasn't worked. It doesn't station many meaningful assets in the CAR that aren't beholden to Russia in some way, and the few independent entities that do exist, could quickly be dealt with by Wagner if things were to get violent.

Russia doesn't have the means to send a rival, or bigger military force to literally get rid of the Wagner Group, and they certainly couldn't get sufficient forces there if they couldn't use the nation's airports, which Wagner and its political allies control. Russia's infrastructure in Africa is designed to funnel money and resources toward Moscow, not to funnel large numbers of troops into Africa, and while, in a really extreme case, Russian bombers could reach Wagner targets in the CAR under the right circumstances, that would be an incredibly inflammatory, and quite frankly stupid step for Russia to take. Putin would be sacrificing an ally, causing a major international incident, and deliberately targeting thousands of Russians, all to make a point about who's really in charge.

A more realistic option, economic sanctions, would be unlikely to inhibit the Wagner Group's operations so drastically that they'd have to come to heel; after all, they can use the CAR's financial institutions and state legitimacy, or any number of other tools, to create financial back-doors and find customers happy to accept the gold and diamonds that they provide.

The Final Battle: Russia's Impossible Choice

Russia can try to bully the Wagner Group out of the CAR, and they're trying to do that, right now…but if that effort fails, then Russia will find itself trying to make a very difficult decision. Does it allow a surviving element of the Wagner Group, quiet and comfortable with the status quo but fundamentally rogue, to endure in Central Africa? Or does it take really extreme action to extract Wagner by force, and remove it from a country where its deep ties, plus the loyalty of its host government, would make it an absolute pain to deal with, the hard way?

It's a tough question, with no easy answer, but it's going to be fascinating to see whether Wagner can survive what might be its final battle. As Russian guns are pointed outward from the capital city of Bangui, and Russian guns are pointed inward, Vladimir Putin prepares to settle the issue of the mercenaries who dared to march on Moscow. The Central African Republic has become Wagner's fortress, and the question now is whether that fortress can withstand the pressure from the very government that created the Wagner Group in the first place.

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FAQ

What is the Wagner Group?

The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company (mercenary group) that emerged in 2014. It operates in dangerous regions worldwide, trading security services for access to natural resources like gold, diamonds, and critical minerals. Wagner has been described as one of Russia's most fearsome mercenary forces.

When did Wagner first deploy to the Central African Republic?

Wagner first deployed 170 mercenaries to the Central African Republic in 2018. Since then, it has grown to become Wagner's largest deployment area outside of Ukraine, with current estimates ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 fighters.

What is the Africa Corps?

The Africa Corps is a paramilitary organization founded by Russia in 2023 after Wagner's mutiny. Unlike Wagner, it operates under the direct control of Russia's Ministry of Defense, making it less likely to go rogue. Many former Wagner fighters have joined the Africa Corps, which is now stationed in at least four or five African nations.

Why did Russia decide to replace Wagner with the Africa Corps?

After Wagner's leaders launched an aborted mutiny in 2023 and were subsequently killed, Moscow determined that Wagner had become too autonomous and needed to be dismantled. The Africa Corps was created as a more controllable alternative under direct Ministry of Defense oversight.

Who is Faustin-Archange Touadera?

Faustin-Archange Touadera is the 68-year-old autocratic president of the Central African Republic who has led the country since 2016. His regime is heavily dependent on Wagner Group support for security, protection from rebel factions, and maintaining his grip on power.

What services does Wagner provide to the CAR government?

Wagner hunts down rebel factions, creates propaganda, intimidates or executes troublesome civilians, provides personal protection to Touadera, trains elite units, protects political allies, and provides roughly 2,000 well-armed troops. Wagner essentially protects the regime from uprisings, separatist movements, and potential coups.

How does Wagner get paid for its services in the CAR?

Wagner receives payment in the form of raw minerals and natural resources (gold, diamonds, timber, critical minerals) rather than cash. The group has open access to the CAR's rich natural resource reserves and owns companies that facilitate mining and smuggling operations.

Why is President Touadera resisting the switch to the Africa Corps?

Touadera's regime depends on Wagner for survival. The Africa Corps appears inadequate as a replacement—they're less equipped, less familiar with local conditions, less willing to engage in front-line combat, and have supply chain issues. Additionally, Russia demands cash payment, which the CAR cannot afford.

Sources

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Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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