Bolivia Just Survived a Really Weird Coup. Here’s What Happened.

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Video originally published on July 16, 2024.

Bolivia Just Survived a Really Weird Coup. Here’s What Happened. It was a day that started just like any other in Bolivia. Before long, Bolivian television channels were airing video footage of numerous military personnel alongside a pair of tanks, located just in front of the Bolivian Presidential Palace, known as the Casa Grande del Pueblo, in the nation’s administrative capital of La Paz. Their commander was one Juan Jose Zuñiga, a general serving as the Commander of the Bolivian Army, and standing in the square outside the presidential palace, Zuñiga made his intentions clear. Quoting a news translation here, he proclaimed: “The three chiefs of the armed forces have come to express our dismay. There will be a new cabinet of ministers; surely things will change, but our country cannot continue like this any longer.” Zuñiga announced that multiple incarcerated people within Bolivia, who he called political prisoners, would be released, including the nation’s most recent former president, Jeanine Añez.

Key Takeaways

Bolivia Just Survived a Really Weird Coup. Here’s What Happened.
It’s a sleepy South American nation of twelve million people, nestled into the Andes Mountains, a developing and resource-rich nation that’s broadly avoided global headlines for the last half a decade.
Military columns were making irregular and unauthorized movements in and around the capital, with intent that was, at that time, unknown.
At the time of the coup, Arce was believed to be either within the presidential palace or in a neighboring building that serves as the center of executive power in the country, accompanied by several of his ministers.
Nor was the apparent coup’s objective to oust Arce in favor of Bolivia’s best-known former president, Evo Morales; after all, General Zuñiga seemed no more amenable to Morales than he was to current President Arce.

Key Developments

It’s a sleepy South American nation of twelve million people, nestled into the Andes Mountains, a developing and resource-rich nation that’s broadly avoided global headlines for the last half a decade. But by the mid-afternoon of June the twenty-sixth, 2024, Bolivia would watch helplessly as heavy military vehicles rammed through the gates of the Presidential Palace, soldiers stormed the building, and a powerful military general took to the airwaves to announce that he, not the President, was now in control. On today’s special episode of Warographics, we’re not going to keep you in suspense; the coup would fail, without a single life lost on any side, and order, quite quickly, would be restored. But simply reporting the outcome, belies the sheer strangeness that surrounded the entire event—the fractious and unstable situation within Bolivia, the grandstanding and the odd cordiality of the coup itself, and how, in the aftermath, it’s worth asking whether this strange episode was even a coup attempt at all. The Coup. At approximately 2:30 in the afternoon, local time, on Tuesday, June twenty-sixth, 2024, the Bolivian state media organization ABI issued an urgent message over the airwaves. The target of the coup was Bolivia’s current president, a career politician named Luis Arce who’s currently in the final year of his first term of office. At the time of the coup, Arce was believed to be either within the presidential palace or in a neighboring building that serves as the center of executive power in the country, accompanied by several of his ministers. With an armored vehicle busting through the palace gates, and troops streaming inside within just minutes, it seemed all but certain that Arce’s fate was in the hands of General Zuñiga, and nobody else. Said Zuñiga during the coup, quoting from an Associated Press translation here: “We are listening to the cry of the people because for many years an elite has taken control of the country. […] The armed forces intend to restore the democracy, to make it a true democracy.” Whether that meant that Arce and his ministers could be arrested and tried, or sent into exile, or killed outright on the cool, brown tile floors of the Presidential Palace itself… there was simply no way to know until it happened. And nor were there any clear indicators on what Zuñiga’s plan might be in the aftermath. The promised release of former president Añez offered some clue, but whether she would be installed as the country’s leader, or whether Bolivia’s latest in a long line of coups would end with the imposition of a military junta, it was impossible to say. Nor was the apparent coup’s objective to oust Arce in favor of Bolivia’s best-known former president, Evo Morales; after all, General Zuñiga seemed no more amenable to Morales than he was to current President Arce.

Strategic Implications

Military columns were making irregular and unauthorized movements in and around the capital, with intent that was, at that time, unknown. Before long, Bolivian television channels were airing video footage of numerous military personnel alongside a pair of tanks, located just in front of the Bolivian Presidential Palace, known as the Casa Grande del Pueblo, in the nation’s administrative capital of La Paz. Their commander was one Juan Jose Zuñiga, a general serving as the Commander of the Bolivian Army, and standing in the square outside the presidential palace, Zuñiga made his intentions clear. Quoting a news translation here, he proclaimed: “The three chiefs of the armed forces have come to express our dismay. There will be a new cabinet of ministers; surely things will change, but our country cannot continue like this any longer.” Zuñiga announced that multiple incarcerated people within Bolivia, who he called political prisoners, would be released, including the nation’s most recent former president, Jeanine Añez. The target of the coup was Bolivia’s current president, a career politician named Luis Arce who’s currently in the final year of his first term of office. In fact, a rift between Zuñiga and Morales was almost certainly the spark that lit off this entire Bolivian powder keg. Two days prior to the June 26 coup attempt, Zuñiga had announced that the Bolivian Armed Forces would arrest former president Morales, if he officially began a run for that highly controversial third term as president. According to Zuñiga, Morales was a traitor to the country, and the Army commander accused the former president of plotting a revolution against the current Bolivian government. He stated of Morales in part, quoting here: “This man is a true mythomaniac, he uses lies as a strategy to return to power.” Zuñiga, like Arce before him, insisted that the Bolivian Constitution would prevent Morales from ever returning to the presidency, although in reality the constitutional court that’s already disqualified Morales from the 2025 race may not actually be enough to prevent his run. Ultimately, General Zuñiga’s threats were a bridge too far, even for former president Morales’ own political rival. One day later, President Arce relived Zuñiga of his post, amidst accusations from former president Morales that if he had failed to do so, then it implicated the entire Bolivian government in what Morales described as a “self-coup” to prevent any real potential change in national leadership. It was the culmination of a boiling feud between the two men, one in which Morales had accused Zuñiga of leading a military group that, Morales alleged, was working to destroy him. With that very, very raw wound on full display, it was impossible to predict what such a disgruntled ex-commander might do with the nation at his fingertips, and whether this surprise tour would very quickly become a tour of revenge.

Risk and Uncertainty

At the time of the coup, Arce was believed to be either within the presidential palace or in a neighboring building that serves as the center of executive power in the country, accompanied by several of his ministers. With an armored vehicle busting through the palace gates, and troops streaming inside within just minutes, it seemed all but certain that Arce’s fate was in the hands of General Zuñiga, and nobody else. Said Zuñiga during the coup, quoting from an Associated Press translation here: “We are listening to the cry of the people because for many years an elite has taken control of the country. […] The armed forces intend to restore the democracy, to make it a true democracy.” Whether that meant that Arce and his ministers could be arrested and tried, or sent into exile, or killed outright on the cool, brown tile floors of the Presidential Palace itself… there was simply no way to know until it happened. And nor were there any clear indicators on what Zuñiga’s plan might be in the aftermath. The promised release of former president Añez offered some clue, but whether she would be installed as the country’s leader, or whether Bolivia’s latest in a long line of coups would end with the imposition of a military junta, it was impossible to say. But once Zuñiga’s troops were inside the Presidential Palace, more photos and videos began to emerge, indicating that perhaps, bloodshed wasn’t the only potentially shocking outcome of the day. Not long after Zuñiga arrived to the square outside the palace, with Zuñiga’s troops streaming through the building, Arce issued his own video message, sent to news outlets from within the presidential palace. Surrounded by his ministers in a clear expression of defiance, Arce called on the Bolivian population to protect the nation’s democracy, protect Bolivian lives, and mobilize to stop the coup before it was too late. Across the city of La Paz, citizens responded to Arce’s call en masse. On the one hand, many of the city residents first descended upon supermarkets, banks, pharmacies, gas stations, and everywhere else they’d need to collect resources in the event of massive political upheaval. Bolivia is, by now, very used to the occasional coup d’etat, with nearly forty such attempts since 1946. In such an uncertain situation, the instinct to stock up on essentials in order to weather a coup, in Bolivia, is just as well-refined as the instinct to stock up in advance of a hurricane in the American deep south. But all across the city, another mass reaction happened too. Surging onto the streets, thousands of pro-democracy, pro-government protesters descended on the presidential palace. In some cases, they even approached coup soldiers directly and demanded that they stop the chaos, or otherwise withdraw from their positions.

Outlook

Nor was the apparent coup’s objective to oust Arce in favor of Bolivia’s best-known former president, Evo Morales; after all, General Zuñiga seemed no more amenable to Morales than he was to current President Arce. In fact, a rift between Zuñiga and Morales was almost certainly the spark that lit off this entire Bolivian powder keg. Two days prior to the June 26 coup attempt, Zuñiga had announced that the Bolivian Armed Forces would arrest former president Morales, if he officially began a run for that highly controversial third term as president. According to Zuñiga, Morales was a traitor to the country, and the Army commander accused the former president of plotting a revolution against the current Bolivian government. He stated of Morales in part, quoting here: “This man is a true mythomaniac, he uses lies as a strategy to return to power.” Zuñiga, like Arce before him, insisted that the Bolivian Constitution would prevent Morales from ever returning to the presidency, although in reality the constitutional court that’s already disqualified Morales from the 2025 race may not actually be enough to prevent his run. Ultimately, General Zuñiga’s threats were a bridge too far, even for former president Morales’ own political rival. And inside the palace, when General Zuñiga and President Arce came face to face, the result was neither a prompt arrest, nor a bullet screaming through the bridge of Arce’s glasses and into his head. Instead, it was Arce, berating Zuñiga in the palace halls, surrounded by a crush of ministers, military, and other onlookers. On footage broadcast to television across the nation, Arce laid into his wayward general; quoting a translation here, “I am your captain, and I order you to withdraw your soldiers. I will not tolerate this insubordination.” As he scolded Zuñiga, sounds heard in the video resembled the launch of tear gas canisters, which were, around that time, being fired against protesters. A total of nine civilians would be injured over the course of the coup, although nobody would die as a result of the coup attempt throughout the entire day, on any side. Before long, condemnations were raining down onto the coup from all sides: Arce’s government ministers, Bolivian trade unions and labor groups, opposition candidates and parties, former president Evo Morales, and even the former president General Zuñiga had intended to release, Jeanine Añez. Arce appointed new leaders of the Army, Navy, and Air Force, including a general named Jose Wilson Sanchez, who took the position vacated by Zuñiga and promptly ordered all the troops participating in the coup to return to their barracks. Before long, the troops were doing just that, making their way out of the city center and taking their armored personnel carriers and tanks with them. Swarmed by media, Zuñiga made a series of statements to the press, and was placed under arrest, forced into a police car and driven off.

The Day of the Coup: Unpacking the Events of June 26, 2024

With President Arce triumphantly raising a fist over the gathered crowd, and his defense minister later confirming that the government was back in total control of the military, the coup attempt was over, some three hours after it had begun. Now, there is a lot to unpack about this particular coup, but before we do, it’s worth taking the time to explore just what has happened in Bolivia over the last several years, to prompt a coup at all. We’ll start with the state of the Bolivian economy, an institution that’s not quite in shambles yet, but has been suffering mightily in recent years. When Bolivia was wrapped up in the global economic downturn at the start of the 2020s, it faced the consequences of its government’s previous half-decade or more of precarious economic policy. After years spent pulling from Bolivian currency reserves, drawing from its gold reserves, and taking a number of other risky measures in order to keep spending, the country was forced with financial ruin when broader economic winds shifted against its favor. Around that same time, Bolivia’s gas production began to dry up, removing a critical safeguard that was supposed to prevent things from getting bad. All that was made worse by the fact that in the short term, the 2010s had actually been quite kind to Bolivia. That was the decade in which the aforementioned former president Evo Morales was running the show, and the current president, Luis Arce, was finance minister, overseeing these same precarious budgetary initiatives and contributing to what was regarded at that time, as an economic boom. While from a policy perspective, that boom was attributable mostly to Arce’s work, it was something that President Morales got most of the credit for, contributing to his broad popularity and making him a potent force even as he now attempts to run against his former finance minister Arce. Meanwhile, Arce ended up in the rather unenviable position of handing off credit for all his successes to Morales, only for those successes to crumble into cascading failures after he took office—meaning that the vast majority of public blame for the situation, has fallen squarely on him. In 2024, Bolivia’s economy feels hardly recognizable from its recent, happier times. Fuel shortages have been an enduring problem for years, while the country’s reserves of natural gas run low, and their attempts to sell to other Latin American nations grow less lucrative amidst worldwide efforts to decarbonize global energy. Droughts across the country have only made things worse, and Bolivia’s many small villages are now broadly on the verge of becoming unsustainable in their own little economic bubbles.

Bolivia's Turbulent Politics: Historical Context and Background

Unemployment has risen dramatically, small businesses face bankruptcy, and the country has only a starkly limited service industry to fall back on, with a large black market that undercuts legitimate business. While the country is rich in natural resources like silver, tungsten, zinc, and boron, it’s had a very tough time competing as a poor, landlocked nation with its wealthier, sea-trading competitors across the world. Finally, it faces a US-dollar shortage in a country dependent on the dollar for survival, as a simultaneous cost-of-living crisis begins to unfold. All the while, Arce and Morales’ once-cordial relationship has descended into a toxic political rivalry. Far from the productive relationship they used to have, Morales is now a major political rival to Arce, even though they share a political party. Morales has already attempted to defy the Bolivian constitution and secure a fourth term of office before, in 2019, and he actually won that election, but a wave of violent protests forced him to offer a resignation and flee into exile abroad for a time. Now that he’s back, Morales clearly has his heart set on returning to the presidency yet again, and has sought to diminish Arce at every turn. By example, Arce has worked hard to attempt to take on debt in order to pay back a massive loan from the International Monetary Fund early, so that Bolivia can avoid some economic pain that the loan’s terms are causing directly. Morales, though, has seen to it that those efforts have been blocked in the Bolivian Congress, knowing that the financial crisis will only worsen and Arce’s position will get yet more precarious before elections in 2025. Not only that, but Bolivia controls massive deposits of lithium, a resource that could bring incredible prosperity if foreign companies were allowed to come and mine it…but Arce can’t get approval for those initiatives from his Congress either. As Bolivia has rolled into its election season, the bitterness between Morales and Arce has only gotten worse. In his speeches during recent months, Arce has implicitly accused Morales of trying to orchestrate a, quote, “soft coup”, to push Arce out of office early. Arce has attempted to battle back with the tools available to him within the national government apparatus, but Morales has seized on Bolivia’s economic woes to win back considerable popular support. With their battle back and forth, social unrest has only gotten worse across the country, and with such a lack of clarity on whether Morales will end up being able to run for office, the prospect of a coming election has been less of a relief valve and more of a pressure cooker.

Frequently Asked Questions

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Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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