China's Air Force is Broken.

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Video originally published on November 24, 2025.

China’s Air Force is Broken. Introduction. The Chinese Air Force is among the most powerful on planet Earth. There are limited exceptions here, for Chinese-made aircraft in service with other militaries around the world, and we’ll talk through those exceptions shortly, but even those aren’t aircraft in service with the Chinese Air Force; they’re just aircraft that China designed and then shipped off.

Key Takeaways

China’s Air Force is Broken. Introduction. The Chinese Air Force is among the most powerful on planet Earth.
Flying some three thousand highly potent fighters and bombers, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force is the undisputed king of the skies across Asia, with the technology, the pilots, and the payloads to deliver some.
So, here’s what China has in its arsenal…and here’s where that arsenal falls apart.
A twin-engine, all-weather air superiority fighter, the J-20 is a stealth fighter, the second-most-common in the world behind America’s F-35.
First introduced to Soviet service back in 1985, the Su-27 was initially intended as an air-to-air interceptor rivaling the American F-15 Eagle, although a number of variants have since gone into service.

Key Developments

Flying some three thousand highly potent fighters and bombers, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force is the undisputed king of the skies across Asia, with the technology, the pilots, and the payloads to deliver some serious hurt against any adversary that would dare cross its path. On the numbers, it’s second only to the United States of America, while its highly advanced stealth jets, and its growing list of next-generation fighters, grant China the right to claim that it’s America’s equal on the global stage. So, it must be a point of some frustration inside the highest ranks of the CCP, that China’s air force is also utterly broken. Despite its capabilities on paper, despite the sheer volume of combat aircraft at its disposal, the reality of the Chinese Air Force isn’t nearly as formidable as it seems. It’s hobbled by inefficiency and inexperience, it’s unbalanced and reliant on unproven technology, and it may not even be properly equipped for an invasion of Taiwan. Put aside the hype, the breathless optimism, and the propaganda, and there’s a long list of reasons to suspect that in reality, China’s air force is little more than a paper tiger. Western casualty counts from the war count somewhere between fifty and sixty thousand people killed, but for our purposes, it matters less what the outcome of the fighting was, and more, because of who, and what, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army was flying. Discussing the entire military’s capabilities, even the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army has called out this problem directly, referring to it as, quote, “peace disease”—but nowhere does the rot and atrophy of peace disease matter more, than it does for China’s air force. Before Chang stepped up, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force was under the command of Ding Laihang, who spent a bit over four years in charge. More than likely, the first large-scale war that China fights in the 21st century will be over the island of Taiwan, where the Chinese Air Force will be going head-to-head with far more experienced pilots from the United States, flying their own highly sophisticated stealth jets.

Strategic Implications

So, here’s what China has in its arsenal…and here’s where that arsenal falls apart. By the Numbers. In life, two things can be true at once, and while we’re going to dive deep, in today’s episode, on the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, we’ve got to begin by emphasizing that even though China’s air force is flawed, it certainly isn’t weak, by any fair metric. Both in the sheer size of its air wing, and on the technological merits, China does boast the air force of a global superpower, so, before we get into the myriad problems with the force, let’s take stock of its overall military might. The backbone of Chinese military aviation, and by far the most impressive mass-produced aircraft in China’s arsenal, is the Chengdu J-20, the Mighty Dragon. A stealth fighter that got its first taste of proper military service in 2017, the J-20 has been rolling off Chinese production lines at stunning rates, with somewhere at or above three hundred copies of the jet in active service today. And when it comes to strategic airlift, China practically falls apart. It's in this same way, that China has already been able to build its air force into a potent tool of deterrence—and if China’s recent unveiling of new, mysterious aircraft, its over-focus on stealthy combat jets, and its emphasis on combat over logistics are any indication, then building a tool of deterrence has been China’s objective this whole time. If China can hold the vague threat of sixth-generation fighter aircraft over its adversaries’ heads, or threaten with a strategic bomber fleet that could, in the right circumstances, break through and lay waste to an enemy target, then the question, for an America, a Japan, a South Korea, or another of China’s powerful adversaries, isn’t whether they’d ultimately win a knock-down, drag-out contest. China’s iron grip over rare Earth mines in Myanmar, its progressive absorption of Hong Kong, its growing alliance with Pakistan against India, its islands-building and intimidation operations in the South China Sea, and its many Belt and Road initiatives all across the world, do matter to China’s adversaries.

Risk and Uncertainty

A twin-engine, all-weather air superiority fighter, the J-20 is a stealth fighter, the second-most-common in the world behind America’s F-35. It's reportedly quite well-armed, with an impressive payload capacity, a substantial combat range, and advanced avionics on par with the best in the world. Although it’s China’s premier stealth fighter, it’s no longer China’s only jet of this type; recently, Beijing has been preparing its Shenyang J-35 for service, with a handful of J-35s believed to be in circulation at this time. Once it goes into full-scale production, the J-35 is expected to serve both as a land-based version, and a catapult-assisted carrier jet. Externally, the J-35 is quite similar to America’s F-35, and it’s expected to export out to Russia and Pakistan’s air forces, at a minimum. Backing up the J-35 and the J-10 are a whole suite of non-stealthy fourth-generation fighter jets, with most of those jets built around the core design of the Russian-made Sukhoi Su-27. China’s J-10C, the most potent non-stealth aircraft in its airfleet, is fitted with the unreliable WS-10—an engine that’s known to need frequent maintenance, and even to be swapped out occasionally, which really isn’t what you’d want in a single-engine fighter. Most of China’s fighter aircraft, as well as its H-6 bombers, carry relatively small payloads compared to similar aircraft in the arsenals of other nations, and its most important fighter, the J-20, is among the most underwhelming in that regard. Despite the J-20 being intended as a high-performance fighter, China’s engine designers haven’t been able to keep up, with the intended engine for the J-20, the WS-15, still not ready two decades after it first ignited on the testbed. The most glaring problem for the J-20 stealth fighter is a problem for quite a few of China’s combat jets: Its engines. Rounding out its combat arsenal are a range of unmanned drones, including both strike drones similar to the American-made Predator and Reaper, and a second class of drones that’s a bit more unique: Refitted Cold War-era jet fighters, meant to provide expendable fighter jet swarms and decoys during a potential invasion of Taiwan. China is also known to be flying at least two advanced prototypes of unclear nature, possibly piloted or possibly drones, as well as a stealth bomber known as the H-20, which may, or may not, have been an aircraft spotted flying at high altitudes by civilian photographers on the ground in China this year.

Outlook

First introduced to Soviet service back in 1985, the Su-27 was initially intended as an air-to-air interceptor rivaling the American F-15 Eagle, although a number of variants have since gone into service. Between the base Su-27, the multirole Su-30 improvement, the air-superiority-focused Su-35, and three specialized Chinese-built variants, the J-11 Yinglong, the carrier-capable J-15 Flying Shark, and the J-16 Qianlong. All told, China is estimated to possess roughly a thousand copies of the jets. That includes about four hundred copies of the J-16 specifically, a variant fitted out with advanced avionics technology and equipped to carry the best Chinese-built munitions. No matter the variant, aircraft of the Su-27 line are known for their impressive top speed, their ability to operate at long range, and their ability to pack a punch on at least ten external pylons. Besides its roughly one thousand Su-27 derivatives, China flies over six hundred copies of the indigenously designed and developed multirole fighter, the J-10 Vigorous Dragon. In fact, China wasn’t flying anything during that conflict, at least not by way of combat air support for its ground troops, and the people who were part of China’s air force back then, have long since aged out of service; in fact, many of them have now died. Although it’s been a while since American pilots were dogfighting with enemy aircraft, many of the nation’s pilots have at least flown into active conflict zones—which is far more than can be said for their likely Chinese adversaries. Although it hasn’t been formally acknowledged by Beijing, it’s believed to be a prototype sixth-generation fighter, a designation that, if true, would mean that China has a shot at being the first nation to put a sixth-gen aircraft into mainline service. Although the H-6 is based on the old Soviet Tu-16, an aircraft that first flew in 1952 and was retired in Russia in the early 2000s, today’s H-6 aircraft are substantially more advanced than their dated airframes would suggest. China also flies about 120 smaller tactical airlifters, and, if you’re really counting everything they’ve got, they also fly about a hundred Soviet-era biplanes, first developed all the way back in the 1940s.

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FAQ

What is the central development in China's Air Force is Broken.?

China’s Air Force is Broken. Introduction. The Chinese Air Force is among the most powerful on planet Earth. It's in this same way, that China has already been able to build its air force into a potent tool of deterrence—and if China’s recent unveiling of new, mysterious aircraft, its over-focus on stealthy combat jets, and its emphasis on combat over logistics are any indication, then building a tool of deterrence has been China’s objective this whole time.

What remains uncertain right now?

A twin-engine, all-weather air superiority fighter, the J-20 is a stealth fighter, the second-most-common in the world behind America’s F-35. If China were to design a hypothetical war where its own combat arsenal was best suited to win, then that would most likely be a war against an adversary at least a thousand kilometers out, where its advanced stealth aircraft could dismantle enemy defenses in short order, clearing the way for a second wave of strike aircraft to devastate whatever remains.

Why does this matter strategically?

So, here’s what China has in its arsenal…and here’s where that arsenal falls apart. Discussing the entire military’s capabilities, even the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army has called out this problem directly, referring to it as, quote, “peace disease”—but nowhere does the rot and atrophy of peace disease matter more, than it does for China’s air force.

What indicators should observers monitor next?

Sources

About the Author

Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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