Ecuador's War on Gangs Falters

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Video originally published on February 14, 2025.

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa's aggressive crackdown on gangs, launched in January 2024, initially showed promise with a decline in murders and prison massacres. However, nine months later, the strategy's effectiveness is being questioned as homicides surge, and the country teeters on the brink of deeper violence and chaos.

Key Takeaways

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa's aggressive crackdown on gangs, launched in January 2024, initially showed promise but its effectiveness is now being questioned as homicides surge.
The country recorded 39 slayings per 100,000 people in 2024, making it one of the most violent countries in the region.
In January 2025, there were 750 murders in Ecuador, exceeding the total homicides in New York state, which has a similar population, in all of 2023.
The port city of Durán suffered more killings in 2024 than at any point in its modern history, making it one of the most-dangerous cities in the world.
Ecuador's experience offers valuable lessons for other nations grappling with similar challenges, including the disintegration of gang structures and turf wars between rival gangs.
The government's militarized approach has been criticized for its handling of resource allocation, with many police departments being understaffed and underfunded.

Ecuador's Bold Gamble Against Gang Violence

In January 2024, Ecuador declared an 'internal armed conflict' and launched a militarized approach to combat cartels and street gangs. The government, led by President Daniel Noboa, declared states of emergency, deployed the military to prisons, and redesignated multiple gangs as terrorist organizations. This bold move initially yielded positive results, with murders falling and prison massacres declining. The crackdown also led to the arrest of 60,000 suspected criminals and the seizure of nearly a third more illicit drugs than in 2023. When put to a referendum in April, Ecuadorians enthusiastically endorsed Noboa's approach. Following the declaration of an “internal armed conflict” in January of 2024, Ecuador threw everything it had at the cartels and street gangs that had brought the nation to the precipice. January 2024 - which, remember, saw the declaration of an internal armed conflict - recorded 504 killings. González used a speech that evening to directly blame the war on gangs for his poor showing, telling her supporters: “We do not want a state of war, we want the construction of peace.” But while González credited the internal armed conflict itself with boosting her chances, the reality is likely a little different.

The Unintended Consequences of Ecuador's Crackdown

However, as the months passed, the reality on the ground began to change. Despite the initial decline in homicides, Ecuador still recorded 39 slayings per 100,000 people in 2024, making it one of the most violent countries in the region. The port city of Durán suffered more killings in 2024 than at any point in its modern history, earning it a spot as one of the most-dangerous cities in the world. Furthermore, the slight dip in overall homicides was accompanied by a rise in kidnappings and extortion. The regions most affected by violence saw Noboa badly underperforming in the recent election, with many Ecuadorians expressing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of security. To put that in perspective, even with the crackdown, Ecuador still saw way more murders per 100,000 than a typical year in Mexico or Venezuela. Still, it’s clear that something will have to change if Ecuador wants to get back on track.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Ecuador's Anti-Gang Strategy

The recent surge in homicides has raised questions about the effectiveness of Ecuador's anti-gang strategy. In January 2025, there were 750 murders in Ecuador, a staggering number that exceeds the total homicides in New York state, which has a similar population, in all of 2023. This spike in violence has led to concerns that the government's approach may not be working as intended. The Norwegian Refugee Council describes life in areas under cartel domination as dire, with daily murders, extortion, and children at risk of recruitment into criminal groups. The situation has also led to a significant displacement of people, with over 80,000 internally displaced and around 122,000 Ecuadorians detained crossing the southern US border last year. Across the whole of 2023 - the most-recent year we have complete data for - the state of New York, which has a similar population to Ecuador, saw just 595 homicides.

The Future of Gang Violence in Ecuador and Beyond

As Ecuador struggles to contain gang violence, the country's experience offers valuable lessons for other nations grappling with similar challenges. The disintegration of gang structures, turf wars between rival gangs, and questions about resource allocation have all contributed to the current crisis. To get back on track, Ecuador will need to reassess its strategy and address the root causes of gang violence. This may involve a more nuanced approach that balances security measures with social and economic interventions. The outcome of Ecuador's war on gangs will have significant implications for regional gang dynamics and the country's future stability. This competition has led to the formation of splinter groups, such as LobosSaoBox, which attack former allies with extreme brutality.” At the same time, turf wars between rival gangs have pushed up rates of violence in other areas. The same report noted that: “Many prosecutors and judges, including those at risk, lack basic security.” Which is a major problem in a country where at least fifteen members of the judiciary have been assassinated by criminal groups since 2022.

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Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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