Russia May Be Planning a False-Flag Attack Against NATO.

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Video originally published on November 25, 2025.

Russia May Be Planning a False-Flag Attack Against NATO. Introduction. All warfare is based on deception, and when Vladimir Putin fights a war, deception will always take center stage. Now, to be clear, the case we’re about to lay out is that Russia would conduct a false-flag attack, rather than Ukraine, but as we’re going to see in both this case, and the other cases that we’re going to discuss, Russian rhetoric consistently seems to be setting up a convoluted dynamic, wherein a genuine false-flag attack, which we’d expect to be set up by Russia and then blamed on Ukraine, is then explained as a genuine Ukrainian attempt to launch a false-flag attack, which Ukraine would then blame on Russia.

Key Takeaways

Russia May Be Planning a False-Flag Attack Against NATO. Introduction.
The modern Russian Federation shapes its warfare through relentless propaganda.
Drones and fighter jets are flying through NATO airspace, cyberattacks and sabotage operations are happening at alarming rates, Russian submarines are prowling the Mediterranean, and none of it is by accident.
This episode is up-to-date, to the best of our knowledge and ability, as of October the fifteenth, 2025, but anything on this subject that might happen after that time, won’t be accounted-for over the course of this episode.
Sometimes, it will blatantly violate red lines that NATO has established, deny having done anything objectionable, and see whether NATO chooses to stand up for itself, or accept a more convenient Russian explanation that allows it to avoid a confrontation.

Key Developments

The modern Russian Federation shapes its warfare through relentless propaganda. It divides its enemies through disinformation and social engineering. It manipulates and twists the narrative, not just toward its own, preferred version of the truth, but in all directions, creating a confusion and a chaos that modern Russia is built to exploit. Most of the time, it’s all but impossible to keep track, and it would be a waste of time to even try and make sense of the deluge…but when a certain theme or idea keeps showing up, over and over again, that is when it’s time to take notice. And right now, Russian propagandists and agitators seem to be gathering around two deadly little words: “False flag”. The timing couldn’t be worse, in a moment when Russia is stepping up its efforts to prod, provoke, and test the resolve of the NATO alliance. It’s a real Russian nesting doll of false-flag operations, but for now, the key thing to understand is that it’s Russian sources that are trying to seed international discourse with the idea that an alleged Ukrainian false-flag attack could be imminent.

Strategic Implications

Drones and fighter jets are flying through NATO airspace, cyberattacks and sabotage operations are happening at alarming rates, Russian submarines are prowling the Mediterranean, and none of it is by accident. By now, most defense experts agree that something larger is coming, but what that something will be, and when it’ll happen, are a mystery to all outside the Kremlin. So, when Russian propagandists start warning, repeatedly, that Ukraine is about to stage a false-flag attack and blame it on Russia, the world must take notice. Today, that’s precisely what we’re going to do. Phase Zero. The situation across Europe continues to evolve, day by day, and while we certainly hope that Russia will not have launched a probing attack, false-flag or otherwise, against NATO by the time you see this episode…it’s still important to make a note about timing. Buy into Russia’s logic, and any act of sabotage targeting NATO critical infrastructure, using forces who claim, or are found, to be Russian special operators, can be conveniently explained away as exactly the kind of attack that Russia has been trying to tell the world that NATO was planning.

Risk and Uncertainty

This episode is up-to-date, to the best of our knowledge and ability, as of October the fifteenth, 2025, but anything on this subject that might happen after that time, won’t be accounted-for over the course of this episode. What we do know, as of mid-October, 2025, is that a growing consensus of defense experts and researchers are zeroing in on an understanding of what’s going on across Europe. Whether it’s the airspace violations and cyberattacks we mentioned a moment ago, or the constant flights of unidentified drones over sensitive NATO installations and airports, or the growing cryptocurrency-financed sabotage operations playing out across Europe, Russia is making a concerted effort to apply pressure to the NATO alliance. The endgame is murky, but the international community can make a decent guess at Moscow’s immediate objective: to gauge the way that NATO responds, discover just how far it can be pushed before its leaders start pushing back, and perhaps, even discover cracks in NATO’s foundation that can blow the alliance’s mutual defense commitments apart. The Institute for the Study of War explained it best, in a report that suggested that Russia has now entered a so-called “Phase Zero”, a period of time where it intends to lay the groundwork for an eventual war against some, or all, of the NATO alliance. During the Phase Zero that the ISW lays out, Moscow will engage in both overt and covert acts of provocation against Europe.

Outlook

Sometimes, it will blatantly violate red lines that NATO has established, deny having done anything objectionable, and see whether NATO chooses to stand up for itself, or accept a more convenient Russian explanation that allows it to avoid a confrontation. For example, Russia did this when it flew three armed fighter jets through Estonian airspace for about twelve straight minutes. Sometimes, it will engage in acts that would take a while to tie directly back to Russia, but are transparently in line with Russia’s pattern of provocations, to find out whether NATO would dare levy a direct allegation it couldn’t immediately substantiate. For example, see the recent cyberattacks against major European airports. All the while, Moscow will attempt to manipulate the information space, create narratives and counter-narratives and counter-counter-narratives, and set both the physical and psychological conditions it needs, in order to engage in a wider war on Moscow’s preferred terms. Now, we, here at WarFronts, should be very clear: at this time, it does not appear that Russia is in a position to engage NATO in a full-scale war within the next several months, or even the next couple of years.

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FAQ

What is the central development in Russia May Be Planning a False-Flag Attack Against NATO.?

Russia May Be Planning a False-Flag Attack Against NATO. Introduction. Now, to be clear, the case we’re about to lay out is that Russia would conduct a false-flag attack, rather than Ukraine, but as we’re going to see in both this case, and the other cases that we’re going to discuss, Russian rhetoric consistently seems to be setting up a convoluted dynamic, wherein a genuine false-flag attack, which we’d expect to be set up by Russia and then blamed on Ukraine, is then explained as a genuine Ukrainian attempt to launch a false-flag attack, which Ukraine would then blame on Russia.

What remains uncertain right now?

Why does this matter strategically?

What indicators should observers monitor next?

Sources

About the Author

Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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