Turkey: The Clever Man in the Middle

Watch the Episode

Video originally published on May 14, 2024.

This analysis examines Turkey: The Clever Man in the Middle in historical and strategic context. It traces how the core developments unfolded, which institutions and actors shaped outcomes, and what those decisions changed on the ground. Rather than repeating headline-level claims, it focuses on concrete mechanisms, constraints, and tradeoffs that explain the trajectory of events. The discussion moves from Key Developments through Strategic Implications to Risk and Uncertainty, then evaluates wider consequences. The goal is to clarify not only what happened, but why these developments still matter for current planning, risk assessment, and policy decisions.

Key Takeaways

There was once an empire of a similar size, it ruled large swathes of Europe and Asia before fracturing into pieces at the end of the first world war.
And how does anybody successfully run a country stretched across two continents?
There is simply no way to reasonably include absolutely everything here.
Turkish society as a whole is deeply sceptical, anxious and hostile towards the outside world and for good reason.
The article is grounded strictly in the source video script and listed references.

Key Developments

There was once an empire of a similar size, it ruled large swathes of Europe and Asia before fracturing into pieces at the end of the first world war. European powers descended on it like vultures, tearing at its carcass and leaving almost nothing left...But out of the ashes of this empire came a young new nation, one that said no to the old ways and chose to drag itself into the light of the modern age, willing and eager to prove itself on the world stage. But it ran into a number of key problems. What happens when a nation is consistently caught between global powers much stronger than itself? How does a country survive, when it is constantly being manipulated from those around it? How does a nation forge its path in the modern world whilst being so internally divided? And how does anybody successfully run a country stretched across two continents? Well, what if I told you that there a country exactly like that, and not only was it finding a way to survive despite these issues, but is actually able to use them to its advantage? To play powers against each other, to consolidate foreign influence of its own, and use it to affect politics all over the globe? Today Warographics is going on a deep dive into the republic of Turkey, from the geography of the Bosporus, to Erdogan's domestic vice grip on power, to the game of chicken that Ankara must play to keep two feuding superpowers close, but not too close. Just a quick disclaimer before we begin, the modern history of any state is so broad that a video going over all of it in exhaustive detail would be both incredibly boring to watch and nine-hundred hours long. There is simply no way to reasonably include absolutely everything here. All this video is aiming to do, is give you an accurate and holistic understanding of the key moments and points in history that have shaped the politics and culture of Turkey today. Right, with that out of the way, let's go back to where it all began. To a world very different to the one we find ourselves in today, a world of sultans. Corpse of an Empire - Rise of a nation At the end of the first world war, it was no secret that the Ottoman Empire was on its last legs. The fabled “sick man of Europe” would soon succumb to his affliction. Following the occupations of Izmir and Istanbul after the defeat of the Ottomans, world powers descended, taking pieces for themselves and leaving almost nothing left. Many stood by, what could they do? But a select few wouldn't stand for the indignity of defeat and in rebellion the Turkish National Movement was born.

Strategic Implications

And how does anybody successfully run a country stretched across two continents? Well, what if I told you that there a country exactly like that, and not only was it finding a way to survive despite these issues, but is actually able to use them to its advantage? To play powers against each other, to consolidate foreign influence of its own, and use it to affect politics all over the globe? Today Warographics is going on a deep dive into the republic of Turkey, from the geography of the Bosporus, to Erdogan's domestic vice grip on power, to the game of chicken that Ankara must play to keep two feuding superpowers close, but not too close. Welcome to the Eurasian corridor. Just a quick disclaimer before we begin, the modern history of any state is so broad that a video going over all of it in exhaustive detail would be both incredibly boring to watch and nine-hundred hours long. A young commander, named Mustafa Kemal who had distinguished himself at the battle of Gallipoli took charge and by 1923, had successfully ousted the remainder of the occupying international armies in a war of independence. Under the Treaty of Lausanne, he settled the borders of a brand-new country with international recognition. Kemal took the last name "Atatürk" meaning Father of the Turks to lead his new nation. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk brought Turkey into the modern age of nation states as we know it today, forming a parliamentary, secular republic, the principles of which would continue to influence domestic Turkish politics for decades to come, so much so that Atatürk is still the dominant presence in Turkish politics today, with political parties still fighting over his legacy. The new Turkey underwent significant strife in striving for democratic representation across the latter half of the 20th century, suffering various coup d'etats, resignations and new governments, but always attempting to return to democratic rule. In 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdogan won his first parliamentary election and is still in power to this day. The office of Prime Minister was abolished in 2017, with Erdogan swapping to the office of President after winning the first direct presidential election in Turkey's history. Part 2 – Erdogan – The Caliph, The Gentleman and the Villain Within Turkey today is a deeply divided society, with many political powers vying for control. The recent evolution and reimagining of the country's national image by president Erdogan has taken the country in a historic new direction that is contentious among subsets of the Turkish people to put it mildly. Turkey's population is categorised by division. You have the longstanding plight of the Kurdish people who partially reside in Turkey, making up almost 20% of the population in comparison to over 70% of Turks and 7-12% making up other various minorities.

Risk and Uncertainty

There is simply no way to reasonably include absolutely everything here. All this video is aiming to do, is give you an accurate and holistic understanding of the key moments and points in history that have shaped the politics and culture of Turkey today. Right, with that out of the way, let's go back to where it all began. To a world very different to the one we find ourselves in today, a world of sultans. The Ottoman Empire. Corpse of an Empire - Rise of a nation At the end of the first world war, it was no secret that the Ottoman Empire was on its last legs. Despite Turkey's historical secularism, it is an overwhelmingly Muslim nation, with 90% of the population following Sunni Islam and Shia Islam making up most of the remainder. The biggest division in Turkey, perhaps unsurprisingly, is along political lines. Turkey has a multi-party system ensuring some level of parliamentary representation for most groups and elections are often closely-run. A change to the constitution by President Erdogan in 2017, as part of a governmental plan set in place back in 2012, handed more executive powers to the presidency, rendering the parliamentary republic no more, and in its place, forming a presidential one. Erdogan won the most recent Presidential election in May 2023, beating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by only 3 million votes. Erdogan's party, the Justice and Development Party, also known as the AKP, beat out all others including Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party, known as the CHP. As a result, they took a plurality of seats in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, the legislative arm of the Turkish government. A further divide is evident geographically within Turkey when looking at electoral results, with votes for Erdogan and the AKP coming from more rural areas, whilst the CHP gained most of its support around the capital city Ankara and its largest city, Istanbul. Other parties supporting the Kurds are popular in the South-East of the country, where most Kurds reside. Erdogan has taken Turkey in a new, more nationalist, populist and Islamic direction since his premiership began in 2002, forming an alliance with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (also known as the MHP) and its leader Devlet Bahçeli known as the “People's alliance” if you wanted any more of a hint of its populist goals. The MHP represent the hard right of the alliance and its members occupy positions throughout Turkish bureaucracy, giving the alliance a more authoritarian bend and the power within its institutions to use it effectively. Erdogan has moved the nation more towards a long-standing Turkey-first mentality, with reference to its place in the international community, providing a historical throughline to the times of Atatürk. Atatürk is still the dominant figure in Turkish politics, regardless of the country's recent turn away from secularism and his death in 1938.

Outlook

The fabled “sick man of Europe” would soon succumb to his affliction. Following the occupations of Izmir and Istanbul after the defeat of the Ottomans, world powers descended, taking pieces for themselves and leaving almost nothing left. Many stood by, what could they do? They had lost the war. But a select few wouldn't stand for the indignity of defeat and in rebellion the Turkish National Movement was born. A young commander, named Mustafa Kemal who had distinguished himself at the battle of Gallipoli took charge and by 1923, had successfully ousted the remainder of the occupying international armies in a war of independence. This causes division about how Atatürk's political legacy sits within turkey today, which likely speaks to the wider cultural divide within the country. All parties claim the ongoing legacy of Atatürk's policies whilst simultaneously claiming the other parties are sullying it. The message is clear, you must not disrespect to the founder. Erdogan's evolution of Turkish politics to a more populist and authoritarian agenda has the unfortunate, but perhaps intentional side-effect of alienating Turkey's Kurds even more than they already are. It pushes them closer towards separatist movements like the Kurdistan Workers' Party, also known as the PKK, a currently designated terrorist organisation by both Ankara and Washington which is responsible for attacks on Turkish military targets. As a sizeable minority, Erdogan does have to be wary of the power the Kurds hold, but not in an electoral capacity, as his populist agenda ensures that a large swathe of Turkish society remains onside. He must also be careful not to anger those on his own right-wing, as some in Turkey see Kurdish autonomy as an existential threat. In effect, Erdogan has chosen his side, and like a lot of times throughout history, the Kurds suffer for it. Erdogan's authoritarian shift over the past 10 years has been steep. The president has spent a decade systematically picking apart Turkey's judicial system. The arrest, dismissal and arbitrary transfer of judges and prosecutors; and recurring instances of violence and threats against lawyers paint a stark picture of the kind of nation Erdogan is trying to run. Increasing numbers of those arrested and sentenced to prison for “insulting the president” has ballooned from less than 100 in 2014 to over 3600 in 2020. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who just lost the 2023 election to Erdogan, was one of those sentenced in 2019 for a tweet disparaging Erdogan. Erdogan is generally anti-Western but like any strong leader of Turkey, recognises the need to engage with the West on some level, swinging the pendulum towards and away from the powers around him when it suits. It is important to remember though, that even though Erdogan is anti-Western, Erdogan is not Turkey. There are many in the republic, particularly the younger generations who look towards the West for future cooperation, especially economically, but that appears relatively unlikely with the country politically set up the way it is.

The Ottoman Legacy: Historical Context for Turkey's Strategic Position

Turkish society as a whole is deeply sceptical, anxious and hostile towards the outside world and for good reason. Many of the older generations in Turkey will remember American nuclear missiles being stationed in their country as a counter-measure during the Cuban missile crisis. More recently, many will remember the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkish forces over Syria. Turkey is therefore as sceptical of the West as it is of the other powers around them trying to influence it, the Turkish people are very aware of their position in the world and how they can be used as a pawn in a wider political game by international actors. Erdogan is an authoritarian figure, but this paints him as a strong leader who stands up to external superpowers and he sees himself as the leader of the Muslim world, which gives him influence. But not all is well at home. He is quick to denounce opposition demonstrations such as in 2013 with the Gezi Park protests as coup attempts. Initial discontent over the future of Gezi Park in Istanbul turned into a country-wide movement about civil liberties in Turkey being curtailed. Riot police clashed with peaceful protestors, shooting tear gas and water cannons, police brutality was rampant, with many protestors injured. But the Turkish people, just like when they were founded, said no. They set up camps in the park, #OccupyGezi spread nationally on social media and the organic movement grew until the will of the people simply could not be ignored. Even the ultras of the three biggest football clubs in Turkey; Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe, and Beşiktaş joined together as part of the protests. When you get those three to agree on anything, you know you've made a mistake. Erdogan must have realised this, as the plans for the development of the park were eventually shelved to much fanfare. Erdogan called the protestors "çapulcular" or "looters" and tried to dismiss the protests. Later, the government attempted pedalling conspiracy theories to justify the movement, ranging from foreign influence, to internal traitors and terrorists in an attempt to de-legitimise the protests but the writing was on the wall. It was a profound defeat for Erdogan's regime. The anniversary of the event the following year saw protests that were brutally put down. Erdogan would not let it get out of hand again. In the same year, 2013, a corruption scandal would emerge around Erdogan, his son and other members of the Turkish government. 4 members of the government resigned. Erdogan blamed a “dirty plot” by supporters of Islamic leader Fethullah Gülen; a once-close ally who lives in self-imposed exile in the US, of trying to overthrow him. And it doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon. Part 3 – Turkey on the Map Now that you've got an understanding of the domestic politics within Turkey. So, let's board Turkish Airlines, business class of course, for a tour of its place in the world. Because to understand how Turkey plays the geopolitical game, we must first answer the question: How does Turkey's geography dictate its foreign policy? Turkey's modern borders dictate its place in the world, as well as its relationship with those around it. Conflict can only ever be moments away when you have both European and Middle-Eastern neighbours. Turkey is almost entirely geographically surrounded by countries that either are hostile to it, were once hostile to it, or are actively in conflict with each other, causing issues for Ankara. To the North, there is the Black Sea, of which Turkey is the de facto power. The Black Sea of course borders Russia, Ukraine and Moldova, with fighting occurring within the waterways itself around Crimea and the seized Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

Erdogan's Rise to Power: Domestic Consolidation and Foreign Policy Challenges

Ankara has hence tried to have Gülen extradited back to his homeland which have been denied by the US so far due to a lack of evidence. Gülen has become something of a bogeyman for Erdogan and his continued activism from the US fuels the Gülenist, movement within Turkey, which the government considers a terrorist organisation. Gülen is essentially untouchable in the US and his activism causes a dilemma for Erdogan's regime to this day. Erdogan would go on to blame Gülen and his movement wholesale for a failed coup attempt to oust the autocrat in 2016. The coup attempt took place on the 15th of July 2016 and ultimately cemented Erdogan's rule. An offshoot of the Turkish army, known as the Peace at Home Council tried to take strategically important places across various Turkish cities, citing the move away from secularism, human rights abuses and Turkey's waning international credibility among the reasons for attempted regime change. However, the plot was discovered, and the coup was forced into motion hours earlier than originally planned and was disorganised. Erdogan still only narrowly escaped with his life. But without the neutralisation of the president and the failure of the plotters to secure communications across the country, the coup was doomed to fail, and it did spectacularly. Forces clashed for several hours, but by the following day, it was over. Purges across Turkish society were ubiquitous, in total 70,000 people from across society ranging from teachers, to judges, to military officials were arrested or suspended. 45% of Turkey's admirals and generals were detained. In 2019, the most senior officer involved with the coup and then leader of the Turkish Airforce, Akın Öztürk, was sentenced to life in prison, along with 150 others. The response to the coup by Erdogan's government has been accused of massively overstepping its bounds and justifying the coup attempt as an excuse to purge Turkish society of political opponents and dissidents. A state of emergency was enforced and lasted until for two years until July 2018. This coup was just the motivation that Erdogan needed to suppress dissent within his nation, using it as an ongoing justification for further crackdowns and arrests of those who oppose his regime or refuse to tow the party line. Labelling them as “FETO” or “Fethullah Terrorist Organisation” members, despite Gülen and his movement having no concrete links to the coup. Similar conflicting narratives have fallen out of the coup in the same way as after the Gezi Park protests, with conspiracy theories ranging from the coup being false flag attack, to the involvement of the CIA. Ultimately, though, it doesn't matter where the coup originated, as Erdogan has used it as a tool to secure his grip on power within Turkey to this very day.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the famous man in Turkey?

See the full article for details on Who is the famous man.

Who is the head of intelligence in Turkey?

See the full article for details on Who is the head of.

Who was the famous Turkish war hero?

See the full article for details on Who was the famous Turkish.

Who is the most powerful family in Turkey?

See the full article for details on Who is the most powerful.

What are 5 interesting facts about Turkey?

See the full article for details on What are 5 interesting facts.

Related Coverage

Sources

About the Author

Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

About the Team →