Who is Mark Rutte, NATO's New Leader?

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Video originally published on July 11, 2024.

This analysis examines Who is Mark Rutte, NATO's New Leader? in historical and strategic context. It traces how the core developments unfolded, which institutions and actors shaped outcomes, and what those decisions changed on the ground. Rather than repeating headline-level claims, it focuses on concrete mechanisms, constraints, and tradeoffs that explain the trajectory of events. The discussion moves from Key Developments through Strategic Implications to Risk and Uncertainty, then evaluates wider consequences. The goal is to clarify not only what happened, but why these developments still matter for current planning, risk assessment, and policy decisions.

Key Takeaways

Taking over when the current Secretary General - Jens Stoltenberg - steps down on October 1st, Rutte will inherit an Alliance battling threats both internal and external.
On the surface, it's an easy question to answer. The Netherlands' longest-serving modern leader, Rutte is known as a pragmatist and dealmaker.
That the next holder after current incumbent, Jens Stoltenberg, should hail from one of the nations that joined after the end of the Cold War.
The head of a government that oversaw deep spending cuts to defense, taking it down to a pitiful 1.1 percent of GDP.
Other habits, though, suggest a man who loves routines almost as much as he hates surprises.

Key Developments

Taking over when the current Secretary General - Jens Stoltenberg - steps down on October 1st, Rutte will inherit an Alliance battling threats both internal and external. On its eastern flank, Russia is threatening to destabilize smaller members like Estonia and Lithuania. Across the Atlantic, officials fear that a return of Trump could see America's commitment to NATO fade. Meanwhile, the persistent failure of several nations to meet their spending commitments - cough Canada - threatens to undermine deterrence. In short, the new Secretary General will have his work cut out for him. All of which is why it's important to try and figure out one thing: who, really, is Mark Rutte? All of which is why it's important to try and figure out one thing: who, really, is Mark Rutte? On the surface, it's an easy question to answer. The Netherlands' longest-serving modern leader, Rutte is known as a pragmatist and dealmaker. But we're interested in the deeper truth: what kind of a man is he? And are his qualities of the kind that will unite the NATO Alliance… or see it at long last fade into irrelevance? (TITLE): The Dealmaker Not so long ago, it seemed like the post of NATO Secretary General was on the cusp of a great transformation. After decades being held by men from the same, small group of Western and mostly-northern European countries, there was a feeling that the job needed to migrate east. That the next holder after current incumbent, Jens Stoltenberg, should hail from one of the nations that joined after the end of the Cold War. Not only that, but there were also rumblings that it was time to break the mold of middle-aged white men. That maybe a woman should hold the post. As Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas recently joked about the process, the thinking went that (quote): “The next Secretary General should be from a new member state…should definitely be from a country that has spent at least 2% of their GDP on defense, and it would be nice if it would be a woman. So it's logical it should be Mark Rutte.” Although Kallas was speaking in jest, her words underscored a serious point.

Strategic Implications

On the surface, it's an easy question to answer. The Netherlands' longest-serving modern leader, Rutte is known as a pragmatist and dealmaker. But we're interested in the deeper truth: what kind of a man is he? And are his qualities of the kind that will unite the NATO Alliance… or see it at long last fade into irrelevance? (TITLE): The Dealmaker Not so long ago, it seemed like the post of NATO Secretary General was on the cusp of a great transformation. After decades being held by men from the same, small group of Western and mostly-northern European countries, there was a feeling that the job needed to migrate east. The ascent of Mark Rutte to the head of the Alliance was everything NATO claimed not to want: the fourth Dutchman to take the role. The head of a government that oversaw deep spending cuts to defense, taking it down to a pitiful 1.1 percent of GDP. And yet, when Rutte threw his hat in the ring, his coronation took on an air of inevitability. After telling itself it was looking for something different, it turned out that a pragmatic conservative from the Netherlands was what NATO had secretly wanted all along. That's not to say there wasn't any logic to the decision. As the person at the head of a military grouping of 32 nations, the Secretary General's role is to balance opinions and find consensus - a vital skill when any country could deploy its veto at any moment. As such, it's a role Dutch politicians are ideally suited for. Coming, as they do, from a nation in which parliamentary majorities are unheard of, and anyone wanting to get anything done needs to be skilled at building coalitions and making deals. Yet, even among political players in the Netherlands, Rutte excels in these fields. In his fourteen years as Prime Minister - the longest tenure in Dutch history - he forged coalitions that spanned all the way from the center-left to the hard right. Famously, the arithmetic was so complex after the 2017 election that it took 225 days to put a government together - and yet Rutte succeeded in the end. It's easy to find arguments both for and against. So far, though, we've mostly focused on Rutte's general character. But this is a channel focused on things related to the military and geopolitics. So, time for us to dig a little deeper into Rutte's time in office. Taking in both his approach to defense policy, as well as his actions regarding one of the most-important conflicts of our time: the War in Ukraine. (TITLE): All That is Gold… From the perspective of pro-NATO Americans, perhaps the best thing about having Rutte as Secretary General is his renowned ability to get on with both Republicans and Democrats.

Risk and Uncertainty

That the next holder after current incumbent, Jens Stoltenberg, should hail from one of the nations that joined after the end of the Cold War. Not only that, but there were also rumblings that it was time to break the mold of middle-aged white men. That maybe a woman should hold the post. As Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas recently joked about the process, the thinking went that (quote): “The next Secretary General should be from a new member state…should definitely be from a country that has spent at least 2% of their GDP on defense, and it would be nice if it would be a woman. So it's logical it should be Mark Rutte.” Although Kallas was speaking in jest, her words underscored a serious point. The ascent of Mark Rutte to the head of the Alliance was everything NATO claimed not to want: the fourth Dutchman to take the role. In Brussels, too, he's known as the man who forged the 2015 deal with President Erdoğan, in which Turkey agreed to take in refugees in return for vast sums of EU money. As the New Statesman has written: “Rutte's ability to unlock deals is his political trademark.” This consensus-building was visible on his path to the Secretary General job. After twice turning down offers from Washington to take over from Jens Stoltenberg, Foreign Policy writes that Rutte told Joe Biden in January of 2023: “You have asked me twice to become secretary-general of NATO, and I turned you down twice. If you ask me a third time, I will say yes.” But while America's backing was essential, it was in convincing the holdout nations of Turkey and Hungary that Rutte really shined. Having long pissed off Erdogan by not condemning Dutch politicians who insulted him, Rutte spent this spring traveling to Turkey and alternately flattering and reassuring the autocrat, who ultimately gave him his blessing. Perhaps more-impressively, Rutte managed to get Viktor Orban onside, despite the two having a long track record of loathing one another. In 2021, Rutte had even said Hungary should no longer be in the EU for its anti-LGBT policies - a comment the prickly Orban seemed unlikely to forgive him for.

Outlook

The head of a government that oversaw deep spending cuts to defense, taking it down to a pitiful 1.1 percent of GDP. And yet, when Rutte threw his hat in the ring, his coronation took on an air of inevitability. After telling itself it was looking for something different, it turned out that a pragmatic conservative from the Netherlands was what NATO had secretly wanted all along. That's not to say there wasn't any logic to the decision. As the person at the head of a military grouping of 32 nations, the Secretary General's role is to balance opinions and find consensus - a vital skill when any country could deploy its veto at any moment. As such, it's a role Dutch politicians are ideally suited for. And yet, when the time came, Rutte was able to convince the Hungarian leader to back him. Partially, this was by apologizing for his 2021 comments. But it was also by agreeing to a Hungarian opt-out for any NATO activities in Ukraine. It was a classic bit of Rutte deal-making. The sort of pragmatic hunt for areas of compromise that few other candidates would have been capable of pulling off. But it also sums up both the potential strengths and weaknesses of the new Secretary General. His ability to hold unlikely alliances together… but also his apparent flexibility with his principles. Qualities that have been visible throughout his entire political career. (TITLE): The Quiet Man At 194 cm tall - or six-foot-four in America units - Rutte was long the giant among European leaders. A guy who stood out even in a crowd of Dutchmen. Yet if his tallness set Rutte apart from others, it was perhaps the only conspicuous thing about him. In almost all other respects, the future Secretary General spent most of his time in Dutch politics trying to be as low-key as humanly possible. Some of this involved habits that are today legendary, such as riding his bike to work and continuing to teach one day a week at a local high school, even after becoming PM. Others would be unthinkable in America or Britain, such as refusing a security detail until 2021.

Mark Rutte's Rise to Power: A Dutch Political Background

Other habits, though, suggest a man who loves routines almost as much as he hates surprises. As Politico wrote in a 2023 profile: “Rutte's routine hasn't changed for the better part of a decade. He sips his weekend cappuccino at the same café, visits the same hairdresser, eats at the same handful of restaurants, and tends to order the same meal (...) When he visits Brussels, Rutte doesn't just stay in the same hotel — he books the same room.” Others have reported how he takes the same vacations at the same times every year, including a short break in New York where he always meets the same friend and always goes to the same restaurant. The investigative journalism outlet Follow the Money has written about how much breaking routine stresses Rutte out (quote): “(He is) attached to routines and subject to mild panics if these are deviated from. The mere possibility of losing control threatens outbursts of anger, for which he then immediately apologizes.” However, this is only in day-to-day life. In politics, most are in agreement that Rutte suffers from no such inflexibility, seeming to thrive on changing to suit his needs. An old friend once memorably described him as: “A wet soap that no one can get a grip on.” To illustrate, Foreign Policy points to the ways in which Rutte seemed to change his convictions to suit the different coalitions he worked with. Or, as the magazine put it: “During the four Dutch governing coalitions he formed—both with left-wing and very right-wing parties—insiders were often struck by the ease with which Rutte made compromises, especially when negotiations were at breaking point. To him, compromises were often preferable to principles.” For those of us who grew up in political cultures that value principled stands, such chameleon-like behavior can perhaps seem untrustworthy. After all, should the head of NATO really be someone so slippery, so unknowable? For some, the answer is a resounding “yes”. In an otherwise mildly-critical piece, the New Statesman suggests that being able to quickly adapt to changing circumstances might be useful in today's uncertain world. Quote: “At a time when NATO needs to reinvent itself to survive the growing fragmentation it faces both from within and from outside the alliance, it will find at its helm a master of reinvention.” It's stuff like this that makes Rutte such an interesting choice. The way his qualities can be seen as both an advantage and a hindrance, depending on who is looking. Take his infamous ability to survive scandals without a scratch, an ability that earned him the nickname “Teflon Mark”. In 2021, for example, the discovery that the Dutch government had branded thousands of ordinary parents fraudsters for claiming child benefit they were legally entitled to collapsed Rutte's coalition. An election was called… only for Rutte to lead his party once again to victory. Perhaps less-admirably, Follow the Money highlights his skill at saying things that seem untrue without ever actually lying. Once, when confronted with documents he had appeared to say didn't exist, Rutte peevishly corrected his accusers with the comment: “I did not say that there are no documents, but that I have no recollection of those documents.” Again, depending on your standpoint, this sort of behavior could be categorized as that of a clever hustler, a slippery politician, or just a guy who is an expert at getting out of trouble. Will having a man like that at the top of NATO be good or bad for the Alliance?

Frequently Asked Questions

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Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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