Europe's Defense Dilemma: Too Little, Too Late?

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Video originally published on February 8, 2025.

As global security concerns escalate, Europe is under pressure to revamp its defense spending. With American officials urging increased military expenditure, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a 'surge in defense,' echoing a plea made by US officials for over a decade. The European Union has convened an informal leaders' summit to discuss defense spending, with leaders from all 27 EU states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer in attendance. The summit aims to demonstrate Europe's commitment to military spending and security burden sharing, particularly in light of changing US priorities.

Key Takeaways

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a significant increase in defense spending, highlighting the need for a 'big magnitude' surge.
The European Union has convened an informal leaders' summit to discuss defense spending, with leaders from all 27 EU states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer in attendance.
Europe's current defense capabilities are inadequate, with the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, emphasizing that 'we are not yet doing enough.
The EU's defense spending is inefficient, with duplication of efforts and a lack of integrated air and missile defense, and the bloc is heavily reliant on the US for certain military capabilities.
The EU Commission wants the bloc to spend an additional $510 billion over the next decade, while Poland and the Baltic states want the EU to splurge $100 billion by 2027.
There are divisions over how to raise funds for increased defense spending, with some nations suggesting common debt and others opposing it.

A Decade of Warnings: America's Plea for European Defense Reform

For over a decade, American officials have been urging their European counterparts to increase defense spending, citing the growing need for a more robust European military presence. This call to action has been echoed by European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, who emphasized the need for a 'surge in defense' due to years of under-investment in the sector. The European Union's collective defense spend in 2024 was estimated to be equivalent to 1.9% of GDP, totaling $334.5 billion. Despite this significant expenditure, Europe's military capabilities remain limited, with the continent relying heavily on the US for air-to-air refueling and long-range precision missiles. (Author: Morris M.) “Europe needs, basically, a surge in defense.” For over a decade now, American officials have grown hoarse saying variations of these words - imploring their cousins across the pond to raise their game in an increasingly hostile world. As Reuters drily noted (quoted here via VOA): “The leaders left largely unanswered the question of how their planned surge in defense spending would be paid for.” As we’ll see later in this segment, that’s because the question of funding European defense is trickier and more tiresome than even the most-arcane theological debate.

Von der Leyen's Call to Action: A New Era for European Defense?

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has emphasized the urgent need for increased defense spending, stating that 'for many, many years, we have under-invested in defense.' She called for a significant increase in defense spending, highlighting the need for a 'big magnitude' surge in investment. This call to action has been supported by other European leaders, including the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, who declared that 'we must spend more to prevent war.' The European Commission has proposed a plan to spend an additional $510 billion over the next decade, with some member states, such as Poland and the Baltic states, advocating for an even more ambitious spending plan. Aside from Von der Leyen’s speech, you had president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, promising the bloc would focus on filling credibility gaps in its arsenal, and leaders of all stripes declaring that hikes in defense spending would be necessary.

Assessing the Urgency: Kaja Kallas on Europe's Defense Shortcomings

The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, has highlighted the inadequacies of Europe's current defense capabilities, emphasizing that 'we are not yet doing enough.' She stressed the need for urgent action, warning that 'there should be no doubt in any of our minds that we must spend more to prevent war.' Europe's defense shortcomings are evident in its reliance on the US for critical military capabilities, such as air-to-air refueling and long-range precision missiles. Furthermore, the continent lacks integrated air and missile defense systems, leaving it vulnerable to potential threats from Russia. At the same time, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, declared: “We are not yet doing enough. Already, high commissioner Kaja Kallas, and defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius are meant to be putting together a firm plan for improving the bloc’s defense capacity.

The Timing Conundrum: Too Little, Too Late?

As Europe scrambles to revamp its defense spending, concerns have been raised about the timing of these efforts. With the window of time between the war in Ukraine ending and Russia launching an attack on a NATO member state estimated to be between three to seven years, Europe's leaders face a daunting challenge. The proposed defense spending shake-up may be too little, too late, as the continent's military capabilities remain limited and its defense industrial base is in dire need of investment. The European Commission's plan to loosen deficit rules to facilitate increased defense spending may be a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done to address Europe's defense shortcomings. Depending on who you listen to, the window of time between the war in Ukraine ending and Russia launching an attack on a NATO member could be anywhere from a mere seven years to a hair-raising three years.

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Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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