Why Did Russia Abandon Venezuela? Analyzing the US Operation That Toppled Maduro

In one of the most stunning military operations in modern history, the United States executed a four-hour raid that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their compound in Caracas. The operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, involved over 150 American aircraft, elite Delta Force operators, and months of CIA intelligence gathering. What makes this event particularly significant is not just the military achievement itself, but the conspicuous absence of any meaningful response from Venezuela's powerful international backers—Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran. The swift removal of Maduro raises fundamental questions about the changing nature of global power dynamics, the effectiveness of international alliances, and what it means when a major power acts decisively within its sphere of influence.

Key Takeaways

• The United States executed Operation Absolute Resolve, a four-hour military operation that successfully captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife with zero American casualties, involving over 150 aircraft from twenty bases and elite Delta Force operators.
• The CIA maintained months-long surveillance of Maduro, creating an exact replica of his safe house for rehearsal, allowing special operators to practice the mission with high precision before execution.
• Despite Venezuela possessing Russian-made air defense systems and backing from Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran, none of these allies mounted any effective defense or response during the operation.
• The US demonstrated advanced capabilities to neutralize Venezuelan defenses, including an undisclosed ability to plunge most of Caracas into darkness and render military capabilities ineffective from afar.
• Rather than installing opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the US endorsed Maduro's former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as Acting President, raising questions about possible insider cooperation with the operation.
• Venezuelan oil appears to be a central objective, with the country holding the largest proven oil reserves on Earth at over 300 billion barrels, and the US possessing six specialized Gulf Coast facilities capable of processing Venezuelan heavy crude.

The Mechanics of Operation Absolute Resolve

According to outlets with sources throughout America's political and military leadership, Operation Absolute Resolve was months in the making, constantly rehearsed, and drew upon excellent real-time intelligence. The CIA had maintained a team on the ground in close proximity to Maduro for months, monitoring his daily movements and establishing such a clear understanding of his patterns that they could essentially choose when to execute the capture. Reuters reported that the intelligence service created an exact replica of Maduro's safe house, allowing the special operators who would lead the mission—America's hyper-elite Delta Force—to practice the operation with high precision before it took place.

The operation was originally scheduled to take place days before it actually occurred, but was delayed initially due to imperfect weather conditions. When the mission finally launched, it leveraged a massive air armada. According to the Chairman of America's Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, over 150 American aircraft participated, launched from twenty bases across the Western Hemisphere. The aircraft inventory included stealthy F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, the electronic-jamming EA-18 Growler, the B-1 supersonic bomber, aerial refuelers, command-and-control planes, other fighter aircraft, and surveillance drones, including at least one copy of the secretive and rarely seen RQ-170.

The attack unfolded in carefully coordinated phases. Stealth fighters focused on picking off Venezuelan air defenses first, creating gaps in the defensive network. B-1 bombers and F/A-18 Super Hornets then charged through these gaps, hitting bases, strategic surveillance sites, and other essential points to neutralize the Venezuelan defense. Simultaneously, using what Trump referred to as a certain expertise that the US possesses, most of Caracas was plunged into darkness, with other military capabilities seemingly rendered ineffective from afar. This undisclosed capability appears to represent a significant technological advantage that allowed the US to essentially switch off many of Venezuela's defensive capabilities as well as its broader infrastructure.

The ground component of the operation relied on a convoy of military helicopters, including fast-attack Apaches and Vipers, troop-transport Black Hawks, and heavy-lift Chinooks capable of carrying dozens of operators per chopper. Flying low over the city and relying on pilots and support from the elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment—better known as the Night Stalkers—the convoy took fire and sustained non-lethal damage to one helicopter, but successfully inserted US forces at Maduro's compound. Once on the ground, Delta Force and accompanying operators from the FBI's Hostage Rescue Team executed the carefully rehearsed breaching plan. Venezuelan authorities later stated that a large proportion of Maduro's personal guard were killed in the process. Once inside, US forces made contact with Maduro and established control quickly enough that he was unable to access a safe room. He was then quickly spirited away to an amphibious landing ship, the USS Iwo Jima.

The Intelligence Advantage and Precision Execution

The precision of the operation raises significant questions about how the United States managed to prevent things from going sideways at any of the countless possible points of failure. The answer lies in the depth and quality of US intelligence gathering, not just as it related to Maduro's compound and his daily habits, but regarding the locations of Venezuelan defensive capabilities and the means that would be most effective in taking them out.

The certain expertise that Trump alluded to, granting the US the ability to take most of Caracas offline, represents a capability that has not been fully disclosed. What is clear is that the US demonstrated the ability to essentially switch off many of Venezuela's defensive capabilities as well as its broader infrastructure. According to US sources who spoke to the global press, Venezuelan forces did offer a measure of resistance, but nowhere near what they should have been able to achieve on paper, given the presence of various kinds of Russian-made air defense systems in the country.

This capability gap is particularly significant because it suggests that either the Russian-made systems performed far below their advertised capabilities, US electronic warfare and cyber capabilities are far more advanced than previously understood, or some combination of both factors was at play. The fact that Venezuela's Russian-made ship-killer missiles never posed a threat—because they had to be launched from Russian-made fighter aircraft that US sources indicate were destroyed on the ground or otherwise neutralized—further demonstrates the comprehensive nature of the intelligence preparation that went into the operation.

The Curious Case of the Surviving Inner Circle

One of the most puzzling aspects of Operation Absolute Resolve is what it didn't accomplish: the removal of Maduro's entire inner circle. The line of succession for Venezuela's regime was clear, and Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, not only avoided any US attention during the operation but has now been placed into the role of Acting President with the help of Venezuela's Supreme Court, which also survived intact. Venezuela's Defense Minister, General Vladimir Padrino, emerged unscathed and has been very active on television across Venezuela in the aftermath. The rest of Maduro's inner circle, whether politicians or members of the national elite, largely appear to be just fine.

According to the New York Times, US officials had already decided that Delcy Rodriguez was a perfectly acceptable replacement for Maduro, largely because of her management of Venezuela's oil industry. As one unnamed senior US official told the Times: "I've been watching her career for a long time, so I have some sense of who she is and what she's about." This pre-operation assessment suggests that the US had carefully considered the post-Maduro landscape and made strategic decisions about who would be acceptable to remain in power.

America's endorsement of Rodriguez and its decision to avoid fully decapitating Venezuela's leadership raises a critical question: How many of these high-level officials were either okay with Maduro being removed, or possibly even helped to sell him out? The fact that the operation proceeded with such precision, that Maduro's personal security detail was apparently the only significant resistance encountered, and that the rest of the regime apparatus has remained intact and functional, all point to the possibility of inside cooperation or at minimum tacit acceptance from key figures within the Venezuelan government.

The Sidelining of Maria Corina Machado

The fate of Venezuela's main opposition figures adds another layer of complexity to the post-operation political landscape. Maria Corina Machado, recent Nobel Peace Prize recipient, and her deputy had rightfully claimed the mantle of president in a recent election that the opposition claimed Maduro had rigged in his own favor. Machado and her allies had actively courted Trump for months, even dedicating her Nobel Peace Prize to him after she had received it and endorsing Trump's claims of US election fraud in 2020.

However, Trump appears to have turned his back on Machado, claiming over the weekend that she didn't have the respect that she would have needed in Venezuela in order to govern. In some ways, the decision makes strategic sense. Although many millions of Venezuelans backed the decision to oust Maduro according to recent polling, that doesn't mean that Venezuelans would accept a former opposition leader who was unilaterally installed through American gunboat diplomacy. Not only that, but a large portion of Venezuela's military is thought to remain loyal to Maduro, and if Machado had simply been ushered into power immediately, her life probably would have been in rather acute danger.

Maduro's own former Vice President is much less likely to face that problem, even though she was part of a regime that America had routinely described as illegitimate. Rodriguez's recent statements to the press opposing America's actions don't seem to concern US officials. Quoting Marco Rubio: "We're not going to judge moving forward based simply on what's said in press conferences […] there's a lot of different reasons why people go on TV and say certain things in these countries, especially 15 hours or 12 hours after the person who used to be in charge of the regime is now in handcuffs."

The decision to clear the way for Delcy Rodriguez instead of Machado brings up a question that cannot yet be answered: Is Washington going to try to elevate an elected Venezuelan leader to the presidency as quickly as possible, or has it selected a friendly-enough alternative that it now intends to keep in place for the foreseeable future?

Who Controls Venezuela Now?

The question of who's really in charge of Venezuela today has received contradictory answers from US officials. Donald Trump gave at least some indicator of his view, stating over the weekend that the US would run Venezuela for the next little while as part of an unspecified group. Trump explained that the US was not afraid of boots on the ground and would fix Venezuelan oil infrastructure to get the oil flowing.

On Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refuted that claim, instead telling US television audiences that America would continue to enforce its oil quarantine and use it as leverage to force internal changes, but would not govern Venezuela directly. Also on Sunday, Trump seemed to double down on his own claims, specifically as it relates to new president Delcy Rodriguez, stating: "If she doesn't do what's right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro." During that interview with the New York Post, Trump also stated that if Rodriguez does do what America wants, the US won't need to station troops in the country.

This mixed messaging from the highest levels of the US government creates uncertainty about the actual governance structure that will emerge in Venezuela. What is clear is that the US intends to exercise significant influence over Venezuelan decision-making, particularly as it relates to the country's oil industry, but the exact mechanisms and degree of that influence remain to be fully defined.

The Oil Factor: What America Wants

Given Trump, Rubio, and other US officials' intense focus on Venezuelan oil in the last few days, oil appears to be a central objective of the operation, but there's more nuance to the oil situation than simple resource acquisition. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves of any nation on Earth, at over three hundred billion barrels, but it's not the same quality as oil that comes flowing out of Alaska or the Gulf States.

Venezuelan heavy crude requires specialized processing and refining in order to be usable, and not many countries have the facilities to process it. The United States, however, absolutely does, with six specialized facilities on the American Gulf Coast, approximately two thousand miles or 3,200 kilometers away from Venezuela. This geographic and technological advantage positions the US uniquely to benefit from Venezuelan oil production.

There's also a major strategic element to account for. China is the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil exports, accounting for roughly eighty percent of what Venezuela sends out. Even though that oil makes up a fairly small portion of Chinese consumption, the US still stands to benefit by taking that oil out of Beijing's reach. American companies like Chevron are already operating in Venezuela and are poised to invest massively in rehabilitating oil infrastructure under the control of a US-friendly regime. The combination of denying a strategic resource to a geopolitical competitor while simultaneously securing access for American companies and refineries represents a significant strategic victory beyond the immediate economic benefits.

Russia's Impotent Response

The title question of why Russia abandoned Venezuela deserves careful examination. The short answer is that Russia did try to help Maduro, but what Russia was able to offer turned out to be badly insufficient. Russia has supplied Venezuela with most of its meaningful air defense systems, as well as fighter-jet-launched missiles that were supposed to be a threat to US forces. However, those air defenses either didn't perform as expected, were suppressed and destroyed by US aircraft, or were neutralized by whatever America did behind the scenes to cripple Venezuela's defense—or, possibly, a combination of all three.

Venezuela's Russian-made ship-killer missiles had to be launched from its Russian-made fighter aircraft, which US sources indicate were destroyed on the ground or otherwise neutralized before they could pose a threat. As for a larger, real-time effort to intervene, Russia faced insurmountable practical obstacles. Its fighting forces are committed almost completely in Ukraine, and it lacks the capability to send its spare forces halfway around the world quickly in any meaningful numbers. Russia certainly couldn't have projected enough power to break America's naval and air dominance in the southern Caribbean, especially given the recent US build-up of forces in the region.

Most critically, America's actual operation against Maduro was open and shut within just hours. Once the US decided to move against Caracas, the most that Moscow could do was issue condemnations from the sidelines. The speed of the operation effectively neutralized any possibility of international intervention or diplomatic pressure that might have prevented or reversed the action. By the time the international community could fully react, Maduro was already in US custody and the operation was complete.

The Absence of China, Cuba, Iran, and North Korea

Venezuela's other allies each had their own reasons not to come to Maduro's defense, revealing the limits of international partnerships when confronted with direct military action by a superpower. While China opposes this sort of military action by the US and urged the US to stop toppling the government of Venezuela, its oil interests simply don't justify the costs of a direct intervention. More fundamentally, China just doesn't take direct military action abroad under any circumstances, and its ability to project force all the way across the Pacific remains highly questionable. China's response was limited to diplomatic condemnation, consistent with its general approach to international affairs.

The nation of Cuba, which has long supported Venezuela as a direct backer, did try to support Maduro as best as it could. According to US sources, Maduro lived under the protection of Cuban bodyguards and military advisors, while his country relied on Cuban scientists, doctors, intelligence contacts, and other assistance to function. However, Cuba's actual military is badly outdated and is hardly a threat to the US, especially because it's so close to the US mainland that it's within range of basically everything Washington has. The presence of Cuban bodyguards ultimately proved insufficient against elite US special operations forces.

As for Iran, the leadership there has more than enough problems of its own right now to contemplate any meaningful intervention in Venezuela. The combination of domestic challenges, regional conflicts, and its own confrontations with US power left Iran in no position to project force or provide meaningful assistance to Maduro. North Korea, while occasionally mentioned as a Venezuelan partner, was never a realistic source of assistance given its geographic distance and limited power projection capabilities.

Multipolarity in Action: A New World Order Demonstrated

Zooming all the way out to look at global affairs, there's a final question to ask: Whatever happened to that new, multipolar global order that leaders like Xi and Putin, analysts across the globe, and conflict observers have been discussing recently? The answer is both simple and profound: this is multipolarity in action.

Under the new set of rules that increasingly govern power and geopolitics across the globe, powerful nations are gaining increased latitude to take unchallenged, sometimes violent action in the countries that are within their sphere of influence, with less and less of a role for international laws, human rights, global authorities, or a single power acting as the world police to try and get in the way. Much to the chagrin of Putin, Xi, and other proponents of a truly multipolar world, this is what it looks like when not just those nations, but all nations engage on the basis of multipolarity.

As it turns out, Venezuela was very well within America's sphere of influence, Russian and Chinese influence be damned. The operation demonstrates that in a multipolar world, spheres of influence are defined not by diplomatic partnerships or economic relationships, but by the practical ability to project military power and the willingness to use it. The fact that neither Russia, China, Cuba, nor Iran could or would effectively challenge US action in Venezuela reveals the hierarchy that exists even within a multipolar framework. Geographic proximity, military capability, and strategic commitment all matter more than formal alliances or rhetorical support.

The downfall of Nicolas Maduro isn't just a turning point for Venezuela; it's a turning point for Latin America and for the entire world. It demonstrates that the multipolar order doesn't mean an end to great power intervention—it means that multiple great powers now feel empowered to intervene within their respective spheres without seeking permission from or fearing meaningful opposition by other powers. In the coming weeks and months, more will be learned about where all this change is going to lead, but for now, Venezuela's leadership has been changed by force, and neither Venezuela nor any of its long-time allies were able to do very much about it.

Related Coverage

• The UAE is Destabilizing the Entire Middle East
• How the UAE's Regional Meddling Triggered a Historic Realignment Across the Middle East
• The UAE's Regional Ambitions Collapse as Middle East Powers Push Back

FAQ

How long did Operation Absolute Resolve take to complete?

The entire operation took just four hours from start to finish, with US forces capturing Maduro and his wife and extracting them to the USS Iwo Jima amphibious landing ship with zero American casualties.

How many aircraft were involved in the operation?

Over 150 American aircraft participated in Operation Absolute Resolve, launched from twenty bases across the Western Hemisphere. These included F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, EA-18 Growler electronic warfare aircraft, B-1 supersonic bombers, F/A-18 Super Hornets, aerial refuelers, command-and-control planes, and surveillance drones including the secretive RQ-170.

How did the CIA prepare for the operation?

The CIA maintained a team on the ground in close proximity to Maduro for months, monitoring his daily movements and patterns. They created an exact replica of Maduro's safe house, allowing Delta Force operators to rehearse the mission with high precision before execution.

What happened to Venezuela's air defenses during the operation?

Venezuelan air defenses, primarily Russian-made systems, either didn't perform as expected, were suppressed and destroyed by US aircraft, or were neutralized by undisclosed US capabilities. Stealth fighters picked off air defenses first, creating gaps for B-1 bombers and F/A-18 Super Hornets to strike bases and strategic sites. Most of Caracas was also plunged into darkness using what Trump called 'a certain expertise that we have.'

Why didn't the US install opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as president?

Trump claimed Machado didn't have the respect needed to govern Venezuela. The US likely concluded that installing a former opposition leader through American military action would not be accepted by Venezuelans and could put her life in acute danger, given that a large portion of Venezuela's military remains loyal to Maduro. Instead, the US endorsed Maduro's former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as Acting President.

Who is Delcy Rodriguez and why did the US accept her as Acting President?

Delcy Rodriguez was Maduro's Vice President and has been placed into the role of Acting President with help from Venezuela's Supreme Court. US officials had already decided she was a perfectly acceptable replacement for Maduro, largely because of her management of Venezuela's oil industry. One senior US official stated they had been watching her career for a long time and had a sense of who she is and what she's about.

Why didn't Russia intervene to protect Maduro?

Russia's fighting forces are almost completely committed in Ukraine, and it lacks the capability to send spare forces halfway around the world quickly in meaningful numbers. Russia couldn't have projected enough power to break America's naval and air dominance in the southern Caribbean, and the operation was completed within just four hours, leaving Moscow only able to issue condemnations from the sidelines.

Why didn't China intervene in Venezuela?

While China opposes US military action and urged the US to stop toppling Venezuela's government, its oil interests don't justify the costs of direct intervention. China doesn't take direct military action abroad under any circumstances, and its ability to project force all the way across the Pacific remains highly questionable.

Sources

• https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/mock-house-cia-source-special-forces-us-operation-capture-maduro-2026-01-03/
• https://apnews.com/article/trump-maduro-venezuela-presidential-palace-blowtorches-7969152ae48510003fe9cbde92f3c102
• https://www.axios.com/2026/01/04/marco-rubio-venezuela-maduro-oil
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court-orders-delcy-rodriguez-become-interim-president-2026-01-04/
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/large-part-maduros-security-team-killed-us-action-venezuela-defense-minister-2026-01-04/
• https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-maduro-venezuela-us-strikes
• https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/venezuela-us-military-strikes-maduro-trump/
• https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-maria-corina-machado-releases-letter-read-text-maduro-capture/
• https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yqygxe41pt
• https://apnews.com/live/trump-us-venezuela-updates-01-03-2026
• https://apnews.com/live/us-venezuela-trump-maduro-updates-01-04-2026?version=1767552328524#0000019b-8a0e-d3eb-adff-ff9e78ae0000
• https://www.csis.org/analysis/maduro-captured-what-comes-next-venezuela
• https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/01/trump-venezuela-maduro-delcy-rodriguez/685497/
• https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/04/world/trump-us-venezuela-maduro
• http://nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/cia-venezuela-maduro.html
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/loud-noises-heard-venezuela-capital-southern-area-without-electricity-2026-01-03/
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/newsmaker-nicolas-maduros-heavy-handed-rule-venezuela-is-finally-ended-by-trump-2026-01-03/
• https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-us-oil-companies-will-spend-billions-venezuela-2026-01-03/
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/shocked-venezuelans-hunker-down-unsure-what-comes-next-2026-01-03/
• https://www.reuters.com/world/us/was-us-capture-venezuelas-president-legal-2026-01-03/
• https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/us-politicians-reaction-capture-venezuelan-president-maduro
• https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/venezuela-strikes?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfNsLQ9w8LJpvgxZnUOWwHoXQHC7UVVqczwlEOrQ3HqbcFkb9HlCOZVyFepflI%3D&gaa_ts=695979b3&gaa_sig=FIqTL3DoERbyAadHJt9savq7Y067DzD8rAvVI1D916xXy2qjBNCKxVjKKtcLy0KsmgeAOzB-c34-xVC7LhYVEg%3D%3D
• https://www.nbcnews.com/world/latin-america/live-blog/venezuela-explosions-trump-maduro-live-updates-rcna251053
• https://thehill.com/homenews/5670738-us-military-venezuela-strike-live-updates/
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-president-denounces-state-terrorism-against-venezuela-2026-01-03/
• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/1/3/live-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelas-capital-amid-us-tensions
• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/3/trump-bombs-venezuela-us-captures-maduro-all-that-we-know
• https://www.axios.com/2026/01/03/maduro-capture-reasons-us-venezuela
• https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q4dg1kn8vo
• https://www.axios.com/2026/01/03/maduro-photo-trump-capture
• https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/maduro-captured-world-reaction-00709580
• https://www.axios.com/2026/01/03/trump-says-us-captured-venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduro
• https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/maduro-drug-trafficking-charges-bondi-justice-department-00709639
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/04/venezuela-us-capture-nicolas-maduro-anxiety-cuba
• https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/maduro-capture-venezuela-reaction-global.html
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/maduro-is-out-its-unclear-who-is-running-venezuela-2026-01-04/
• https://www.dw.com/en/explosions-in-caracas-venezuela/live-75373644
• https://www.wired.com/story/disinformation-floods-social-media-after-nicolas-maduros-capture/
• https://www.wired.com/story/us-invaded-venezuela-and-captured-nicolas-maduro-chatgpt-disagrees/
• https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/us/politics/trump-capture-maduro-venezuela.html
• https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/view-investors-economists-react-us-capture-venezuelas-maduro-2026-01-03/\
• https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/01/03/the-united-states-has-captured-venezuelas-dictator-nicolas-maduro
• https://time.com/7342925/venezuela-maduro-capture-reaction/
• https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/01/03/how-the-us-captured-venezuelan-leader-nicolas-maduro/
• https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-01-03/nicolas-maduro-the-autocrat-of-an-isolated-regime-who-had-no-intention-of-surrendering.html
• https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/maduro-venezuela-strikes-delcy-rodriguez.html
• https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-01-03/trump-says-u-s-will-run-venezuela-after-capturing-maduro-in-audacious-attack
• https://www.ft.com/content/689b7aa1-e912-43bc-b536-6c90ef0aa7bc
• https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/venezuela-china-maduro-xi-jingping-trump-tawian-b2894198.html
• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/4/china-urges-us-to-stop-toppling-venezuelan-government-release-maduro