Iran’s Attack on Israel: Is the Middle East About to Go to War?

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Video originally published on April 17, 2024.

This analysis examines Iran's Attack on Israel: Is the Middle East About to Go to War? in historical and strategic context. It traces how the core developments unfolded, which institutions and actors shaped outcomes, and what those decisions changed on the ground. Rather than repeating headline-level claims, it focuses on concrete mechanisms, constraints, and tradeoffs that explain the trajectory of events. The discussion moves from Key Developments through Strategic Implications to Risk and Uncertainty, then evaluates wider consequences. The goal is to clarify not only what happened, but why these developments still matter for current planning, risk assessment, and policy decisions.

Key Takeaways

Dozens of drones had lifted off from Iran, and were on their way on a long, slow march across the Middle East, with Israel directly in the crosshairs.
The drones were a widely used, Iranian-designed model called the Shahed 136, suicide drones that attack in waves against ground targets.
It's a tactic that's rapidly rising in popularity among 21st-century warfighters, and one that the Institute for the Study of War has since claimed to be a near-carbon-copy of tactics that Russia has used against Ukraine in its ongoing war.
In medium range, Israel used David's Sling, a system that can launch intercepting missiles against all of the munitions Iran used, at a range of 100 to 200 kilometers or 62 to 124 miles.
When discussing the context for Iran's strike, work our way backward across the timeline, where first, we've got to talk about the Israeli attack that directly preceded it.

Key Developments

Dozens of drones had lifted off from Iran, and were on their way on a long, slow march across the Middle East, with Israel directly in the crosshairs. For people just tuning in, the attack was both perplexing and deeply worrying, launched by a far stronger and more fearsome adversary than the Hamas organization Israel was supposed to be fighting in Gaza. For those who've watched this conflict closely, it was the moment we'd all been dreading for months, the moment that posturing, rhetoric, proxy warfare, and even direct attacks on each other in third nations, boiled over into an attack that could become the opening salvo in a new international war: Israel on one side, Iran on the other. On today's special episode of Warographics, we'll take a close and comprehensive look at Iran's strike on Israel: What happened, why it happened, what's been going on below the surface of Middle Eastern affairs, and what comes next. The Attack. Iran's assault on Israel commenced on the evening of Saturday, April 13th, local time, with the launch of roughly 170 drones from Iranian airspace. The drones were a widely used, Iranian-designed model called the Shahed 136, suicide drones that attack in waves against ground targets. They're suicide drones, each equipped with up to 50 kilograms or 110 pounds of explosives, intended to crash directly into a target and detonate in the process. Cruising at a top speed of just 185 kilometers per hour or so, not much faster than 100 miles per hour, they would take several hours to get all the way to Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces, or IDF, sounded the alarm, and not only Israel, but several surrounding nations, either closed down their airspace at that time, or had already done so in anticipation of the attack. As the drones closed in, Iran launched a second-wave attack: over thirty cruise missiles, which fly in a relatively straight shot over long distances, and over 120 ballistic missiles, which climb high into the atmosphere before falling downward toward their targets. Both ballistic and cruise missiles fly far faster than the Shahed drones, and Iran had timed its launch to bring those missiles crashing down on Israel slightly after the arrival of the drones. It's a tactic that's rapidly rising in popularity among 21st-century warfighters, and one that the Institute for the Study of War has since claimed to be a near-carbon-copy of tactics that Russia has used against Ukraine in its ongoing war. The incoming drones and cruise missiles are meant to occupy an enemy's air defense systems, costing them valuable interceptor rockets that take time to reload, while the faster, harder-to-hit, and deadlier ballistic missiles arrive during a critical moment of vulnerability, surging through and hitting the intended targets.

Strategic Implications

The drones were a widely used, Iranian-designed model called the Shahed 136, suicide drones that attack in waves against ground targets. They're suicide drones, each equipped with up to 50 kilograms or 110 pounds of explosives, intended to crash directly into a target and detonate in the process. Cruising at a top speed of just 185 kilometers per hour or so, not much faster than 100 miles per hour, they would take several hours to get all the way to Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces, or IDF, sounded the alarm, and not only Israel, but several surrounding nations, either closed down their airspace at that time, or had already done so in anticipation of the attack. As the drones closed in, Iran launched a second-wave attack: over thirty cruise missiles, which fly in a relatively straight shot over long distances, and over 120 ballistic missiles, which climb high into the atmosphere before falling downward toward their targets. Both ballistic and cruise missiles fly far faster than the Shahed drones, and Iran had timed its launch to bring those missiles crashing down on Israel slightly after the arrival of the drones. Said the Institute in their analysis, quote: “The Iranians very likely expected that few if any of the cruise missiles would hit their targets, but likely hoped that a significantly higher percentage of the ballistic missiles would do so.” Also worth noting, Iran-allied groups from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen to militias in Iraq all launched their own rockets at Israel, according to IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari. When the combined attack came within range, Israeli air defenses roared to life. Standing against the missiles and drones was Israel's vaunted, multi-layered defensive shield, a highly advanced interlocking system of long-, medium-, and short-range systems meant to bring down a wide array of aerial threats in and around Israeli airspace. At long range, Israel's Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems used detachable warheads to intercept Iran's ballistic missiles, doing it at altitudes that ensure that even if a nuclear warhead was mounted to one of the missiles, it would have been disposed of at altitudes far enough from the Earth's surface to render its effect harmless. In medium range, Israel used David's Sling, a system that can launch intercepting missiles against all of the munitions Iran used, at a range of 100 to 200 kilometers or 62 to 124 miles. The drones and missiles that made it through Arrow and David's Sling, had to face the Iron Dome, Israel's globally exalted last line of aerial defense, which fires missiles to dispose of short-range threats in midair. Also at Israel's disposal were American-made Patriot air defense systems, and the aircraft of the Israeli Air Force, including over two hundred F-15 and F-16 fighters, and dozens of advanced F-35s.

Risk and Uncertainty

It's a tactic that's rapidly rising in popularity among 21st-century warfighters, and one that the Institute for the Study of War has since claimed to be a near-carbon-copy of tactics that Russia has used against Ukraine in its ongoing war. The incoming drones and cruise missiles are meant to occupy an enemy's air defense systems, costing them valuable interceptor rockets that take time to reload, while the faster, harder-to-hit, and deadlier ballistic missiles arrive during a critical moment of vulnerability, surging through and hitting the intended targets. Said the Institute in their analysis, quote: “The Iranians very likely expected that few if any of the cruise missiles would hit their targets, but likely hoped that a significantly higher percentage of the ballistic missiles would do so.” Also worth noting, Iran-allied groups from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen to militias in Iraq all launched their own rockets at Israel, according to IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari. When the combined attack came within range, Israeli air defenses roared to life. Standing against the missiles and drones was Israel's vaunted, multi-layered defensive shield, a highly advanced interlocking system of long-, medium-, and short-range systems meant to bring down a wide array of aerial threats in and around Israeli airspace. At long range, Israel's Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems used detachable warheads to intercept Iran's ballistic missiles, doing it at altitudes that ensure that even if a nuclear warhead was mounted to one of the missiles, it would have been disposed of at altitudes far enough from the Earth's surface to render its effect harmless. A final element of Israel's defense, the so-called Iron Beam laser defense system, has not yet gone operational and thus wasn't used in this case. Israel's allies took part in the defense, too; the US, the UK, France, and Jordan each took down numerous incoming targets using warplanes and air defenses, while the French Navy provided radar coverage for the affected area. Against such a comprehensive air defense, Iran's assault was largely unsuccessful. Of the 200-or-so Shahed drones and cruise missiles, not a single one is believed to have impacted their intended targets inside Israel, and of Iran's ballistic missiles, just a small handful were claimed s successful hits by Iran. According to Iran itself, the intended targets were Israel's Nevatim Airbase and an intelligence center in a mountain cluster called Mount Hermon, as well as the Ramon Airbase in Israel's south. We'll speak at length about why those targets were chosen, but for now, suffice it to say that Iran scored very few hits. According to Israel, five Iranian ballistic missiles struck the Nevatim airbase, and four hit the Ramon airbase, but the extent of the damage was limited to a hit on a parked C-130 transport aircraft, a runway that hasn't been in use, a few empty storage hangars, and scattered locations around the airbases where not much was happening.

Outlook

In medium range, Israel used David's Sling, a system that can launch intercepting missiles against all of the munitions Iran used, at a range of 100 to 200 kilometers or 62 to 124 miles. The drones and missiles that made it through Arrow and David's Sling, had to face the Iron Dome, Israel's globally exalted last line of aerial defense, which fires missiles to dispose of short-range threats in midair. Also at Israel's disposal were American-made Patriot air defense systems, and the aircraft of the Israeli Air Force, including over two hundred F-15 and F-16 fighters, and dozens of advanced F-35s. A final element of Israel's defense, the so-called Iron Beam laser defense system, has not yet gone operational and thus wasn't used in this case. Israel's allies took part in the defense, too; the US, the UK, France, and Jordan each took down numerous incoming targets using warplanes and air defenses, while the French Navy provided radar coverage for the affected area. Against such a comprehensive air defense, Iran's assault was largely unsuccessful. Iran has claimed far more substantial damage, but as of yet, no evidence of that sort of damage has been made public. There were no deaths due to the attack, in Israel or anywhere else, although several people sustained minor injuries from shrapnel and a seven-year-old Bedouin girl living in Israel was seriously injured. In the early hours following the attack, the relatively limited destruction led many news outlets to conclude that the attack had been meant for show, making brazen flyovers of third nations but choosing points of impact where not many people would be put at risk. Critically, though, most international experts have now concluded that this particular attack was not meant to be a simple expression of token retribution. There was real potential for a less dangerous strike, one that Iranian leaders could show their people to say, “see, we're doing something”, while crafting the strike in a way that would let Israel repel it easily, thus signaling that Iran didn't want to take this matter any further. It's not an uncommon feature of global flashpoints, to see that sort of attack in order to pacify hardliners at home and defuse tensions abroad at the same time. But the tactics Iran chose, the weapons it relied on, and the sheer scale of the attack all indicate that this was real. Although Iran chose slow-flying, easy-to-spot Shahed drones for its attack, the addition of large numbers of ballistic missiles indicate that Iran telegraphed its attack not to allow Israel a chance to repel it, but to soak up Israeli air-defense capability and allow at least some missiles to get through. The attack wasn't meant to do massive or disproportionate amounts of damage, but it was meant to work, and it failed.

The Night of the Attack: Unprecedented Escalation

When discussing the context for Iran's strike, work our way backward across the timeline, where first, we've got to talk about the Israeli attack that directly preceded it. On the first of April of this year, Israel launched an airstrike against an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, Syria, that was part of a larger compound that also housed the Iranian embassy there. The consulate that was struck included the living quarters of Iran's ambassador to Syria, but that was only collateral damage. The real target of that strike was a meeting happening inside the consulate building, between several members of non-state militias allied with Iran, and seven members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. Among their number was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, alongside his deputy, Brigadier General Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi. All seven IRGC soldiers were killed, alongside seven other associates of military organizations that Israel considers its enemies, and two civilians. The attack was a major blow to Iran, not just because it directly targeted an Iranian diplomatic target in a third nation, and thus flagrantly broke one of the few rules of the international order that most of the world actually sticks to. Even more important were the deaths of Brigadier Generals Zahedi and Rahimi, two senior commanders of Iran's Quds Force. The Quds Force is Iran's premier special-operations, military intelligence, and unconventional warfare branch, and they prop up a range of Iran-allied organizations around the world, from Hamas in Gaza to the Houthi rebels in Yemen to Hezbollah in Lebanon and more. Zahedi and Rahimi are the most senior Revolutionary Guard Corps members to be killed since America's 2020 assassination of Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani, a strike that's had ripple effects that many international observers have cited as directly leading to Israel's current war against Hamas. Since Israel's strike, it's been no secret that an Iranian retaliation was going to hit sooner than later. Iran publicly vowed revenge after the strike, and Israel-allied nations around the world, including the United States, took care to express to Iran and the global public that they hadn't had any advance notice of the strike. Western nations applied intense pressure to Iran in order to deter an attack, while Israel threatened direct retribution on Iranian soil if they were made the targets of a retaliatory strike. Iran directly cautioned the US against intervening in any way, and passed a threat from Iran's Swiss embassy to America's that US military bases could be attacked in the Middle East if the US takes part in an Israeli defense. That's a sore spot for the US, after three American reservists were killed and thirty-four were wounded in a strike on an American base near the Jordan-Syria-Iraq border in January.

Historical Context: The Long, Cold War Between Israel and Iran

Regional nations that host American bases also lodged requests that America not use their territory to launch a counterattack, in the event that a strike did come. Finally, Iran warned nations of the region three days before the attack, knowing full well that those warnings would eventually make it back to the Americans and the Israelis. So, when we look at the Iranian attack that ultimately did strike Israel, it's hard to miss the retaliatory nature of the attack—and that's intentional by Iran. Although, again, it does appear that Iran meant this attack to be a major success, it's also important to note that it was a direct response to the Israeli strike on that consular building in Damascus. Even the targets Iran chose were ones that had been directly involved: the airbase where Israel's warplanes took off in order to launch the strike, and the intelligence station that's believed to have tracked the Quds Force generals. The intent was to make Israel pay, but it wasn't meant to start a war, at least not yet. It's the geopolitical equivalent of elbowing back and forth with your sibling in the back of your parents' car: neither of you really wants to break each other's nose or knock out any teeth right now, but you do mean every bit of those elbows, and you're not about to let them be the one to get the last shot in. But in order to really make sense of this attack, we've got to understand the longer recent history between Iran and Israel. Obviously, the history of religious, ethnic, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East goes back a very, very long time, and we're not going to dive into that history here, but among the by-products of that long and troubled history, is a shadow war between Iran and Israel that's gone on for decades. On this channel and our sister channel, Into the Shadows, we've dedicated several episodes to the long-running, three-way cold war in the Middle East, between Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, but to give the short version, all three nations have battled economically, diplomatically, and via proxy warfare to build their control and influence over the Middle East as a whole. While Israel tends to fight that cold war through mostly economic and diplomatic means, relying on its strong relationship with the global West and its immense military strength relative to the rest of the region, Iran has taken a different tone, building what it and its own proxy forces refer to as the Axis of Resistance. That axis is made up of numerous non-state actors that we've mentioned today: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and a network of other militias in Iraq and Syria.

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Jackson Reed

Jackson Reed creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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